VDC Research: RFID, Barcode, Retail Automation & Self-Service Market Blog

A Logical RFID Application That Still Carries Some Heavy "Baggage"

Baggage handling is one of those “no-brainer” applications for passive UHF RFID technology. The use
case just makes sense.  Yet, after more than decade, this application market still struggles with historical issues. Although the benefits of the technology are clear, there have only been a small number of deployments worldwide. As adoption is most challenged by cost concerns, implementation challenge considerations and long-standing disagreements over who should pay for the system (airlines or airports).

Airline passengers are some of the most dissatisfied consumers in the world, especially in the United States.  And, the situation is only becoming worse as airlines cut staff, eliminate routes, add fees, and raise ticket prices to compensate for excessive fuel costs and other economic pressures.  The result has been massively lower customer satisfaction ratings. 

One major sore spot for air travellers continues to be lost baggage. And, now the baggage problem
is being compounded as extra fees are being charged for additional checked
bags.  If the airline misplaces or loses a bag that received a surcharge, imagine how upset a passenger would become after paying for checking in that bag. The airline may lose more than the bag – it will likely lose that customer.

• Lost baggage and handling issues are the focus - The impetus for many projects
  is the need reduce the time to transfer luggage. According to sources at the
  Lisbon Airport, the passive UHF RFID-based baggage handling system (BHS) has
  reduced the time to handle a baggage transfer by 66%. Other advantages include
  increased customer satisfaction and reduced labor (time to search for bags).
• McCarran International Airport (Las Vegas, US) expanded its program in 2012 - The
  new Terminal 3 has 130 self-check-in kiosks at which passengers can print their
  own passive UHF RFID-enabled baggage tags. This is innovative as printing has
  primarily been done behind the counter. More airports are expected to come
  online within 2-3 years; however, baggage handling system ownership (airports
  vs. airlines) and tagging costs remain major adoption barriers.
• Other considerations:

            -       More airports are expected to come online within 2-3 years; however, baggage handling                     system ownership (airports vs. airlines) and tagging costs remain major adoption                     barriers.

            -       Travelers are paying more than ever for checked baggage; however, lost baggage rates                     remain high and lead to customer frustration.  RFID technology can solve this industry                     challenge and make customers feel they are charged for a premium service as opposed                     to a bag fee.

            -       Delivered inlays and tags must be Gen2 compliant to ensure interoperability and IATA-                    approved.

            -       Only when more airlines and airports adopt passive UHF solutions will the commercial                     airline industry realize the full benefits of RFID.

While adoption has been limited to date, successful installations have occurred throughout the world. Some of the more prominent deployments include Schiphol Airport in Amsterdam, McCarran Airport in Las Vegas, Milan’s Malpensa Airport, Hong Kong International Airport, Portugal-Lisbon Airport and Aalborg Airport in Denmark.

While it may take some time, VDC Research does expect more airports and airlines to strongly consider RFID baggage handling systems and begin pilots and deployments. Like with most things RFID, time and actions will tell.  

Barcode Technology Innovations Coming to the Forefront Early in 2013 – Part 2

In Part 1, I highlighted some new product announcements from the barcode scanner vendor community and what these mean for the competitive landscape in general. Here in this post, I will focus on innovations in the barcode printer marketplace and how vendors are positioning their portfolio for success in today’s challenging global macroeconomic environment. Vendors’ research and development efforts are not limited to any one form factor, as evidenced by these product introductions.

1. Zebra Technologies: As the undisputed market leader in the barcode printer landscape, Zebra has successfully leveraged its extensive resources to build out a formidable product line that addresses current and emerging market requirements across a wide range of vertical markets and installation environments. The Company is working to expand its presence in emerging country markets with ongoing investments toward expanding its product portfolio. Zebra launched two MFi (Made For iPhone) certified printers to its already extensive mobile printer offerings – iMZ220™ and iMZ320™ – designed to support printing applications including receipts, tickets, proof of delivery and invoices. Aside from iOS, these solutions are fully capable of also supporting other leading mobile device platforms including Android™, Windows® Mobile and Blackberry OS. In VDC’s opinion, this move will help the organization maintain and also strengthen its leadership position in the portable thermal printer market while also enabling printing support for increasingly popular consumer handhelds.

2. SATO: The market leader in Asia-Pacific, SATO has a much smaller presence in other regions. With its acquisition of Argox in 2011, the Company aims to successfully penetrate the existing low-cost market opportunity in Latin America and Asia-Pacific, with a product line that effectively challenges emerging competitors such as TSC Printers. SATO America recently announced the launch of their Value Line of printers designed to fulfill application requirements of emerging and industrial markets. This includes CP-2140Z, the OS Series and the X Series of printers, capable of supporting applications in industries ranging from retail and transportation to health care and hospitality. The Value Line products are particularly aimed at price-sensitive users looking for cost-effective investment options.

3. Printronix: With a strong focus on the stationary industrial thermal barcode printer market, Printronix continues to work on building out its channel and vertical market reach with strategic alliances and new product introductions. The company’s printers support high-volume, mission critical barcode labeling applications in the industrial market. Printronix rolled out the entry-level T2N series of thermal barcode printers in the first quarter of 2013, pricing it aggressively at below $1,000 for the 203 dpi model. These printers are targeted at application environments including distribution, logistics, manufacturing, retail and health care.

2013 has got off to a very impressive start in terms of product innovation for the barcode technology market. While vendors strive to stay ahead of their competition with these new product introductions, the true winners here are the enterprise end users who are being afforded more choice and options.

Dissecting Honeywell’s Intermec Acquisition: The Potential Road Ahead

Yes, it has been a few weeks since Honeywell announced that it had signed a definitive agreement to acquire Intermec. While this continues to be subject to regulatory approvals, in this blog post I share some thoughts on how this deal may shape up and impact the barcode vendor landscape. Intermec is an active participant in two barcode technology hardware markets – Barcode Printers and Handheld Barcode Scanners. The company has a relatively small presence in the barcode scanning market, with a recent entry into the general purpose scanner space. However, in this category Intermec is up against industry behemoths including Motorola Solutions, Datalogic and Honeywell. I expect Honeywell to fully integrate this part of Intermec’s business into their own; especially given how closely aligned it is with one of Honeywell’s core AIDC competencies. Barcode printing is, however, a whole other conversation.

Intermec is one of the leading barcode printer vendors, according to our research. They rank 5th in our global vendor share chart and are considered to be among the most innovative and resilient brands in the space. Intermec has, over the past 12-18 months, introduced several new barcode printers to the market across all form factors – desktop, industrial and portable. Backed by its strong IP in the space, the organization is well-respected and has a strong presence in each of the regional markets. Is this a business that Honeywell has experience in and is entirely comfortable with? Now this is pure speculation, but I would think not. In my opinion, Intermec’s real value for Honeywell lies in its following areas of expertise – rugged mobile devices, voice technology, barcode scanners and RFID. The barcode printing and media/consumables business is quite possibly one that Honeywell would look to sell to a suitable candidate with an inherent knowledge of this fragmented market and its competitive dynamics, particularly as this doesn’t necessarily fit in with Honeywell’s growth strategy.

To determine the likely contenders vying for Intermec’s barcode printer and consumables business is challenging, but here are my two top picks:

1. ZEBRA TECHNOLOGIES – the undisputed global leader in the barcode printing market. Zebra has a long history of innovation, credibility and dominance in this space. By acquiring this part of Intermec’s broad product portfolio, the company would gain considerable share in each of the regional markets while also successfully leveraging Intermec’s significant presence in the Manufacturing and Transportation & Logistics verticals. Intermec’s strong printer consumables sales would only work to sweeten the pot.
2. SATO CORPORATION – barcode printer market leader in Asia-Pacific, with a much smaller presence in other regions. SATO is a billion-dollar AIDC organization with a business model that is a little different from that of its competitors – a much heavier contribution of consumables sales to overall revenues as opposed to hardware. SATO could significantly benefit from Intermec’s strong barcode printer sales into the Americas and Europe, growing its market presence and share in these regions via a single acquisition.

While it is all pure speculation at this time, I will certainly be keeping an ear out for any such market developments. Stay tuned.

(You can read my other post on this acquisition here)

VDC Research's 13 AutoID Predictions for 2013: Barcode, RFID & RTLS and Mobile Customer Engagement Technologies

Happy New Year! On behalf of the AutoID team and all of VDC Research Group, we wish you all the
best in 2013.

Although 2012 has just concluded, it is never too soon to look ahead. So to start the new year off in an interesting way, the AutoID team has taken out our crystal ball once again to offer 13 predictions for the AutoID market in 2013, including Barcode, RFID & RTLS and Mobile Consumer Engagement Technologies (MCET). They are presented in no particular order.  

1. Barcode: More market aggregation ahead – Expect continued consolidation of the barcode
   hardware landscape, particularly to achieve growth across following dimensions:
   • Regional – Vendors seeking to grow their presence in emerging country markets,
     particularly targeting barcode printer and scanner vendors based out of
     Asia-Pacific.
   • Vertical – Vendors looking to increase their proliferation into high-growth industry
     verticals – particularly healthcare.
2. Barcode: Vendors will learn to “accessorize” – More barcode hardware players will actively
   look to enter the “accessories” market – developing sleds and/or sleeves to support consumer-grade device usage in enterprise environments. This is particularly relevant to vendors addressing customer-facing applications with their devices in retail, healthcare, hospitality and commercial services. 
3. Barcode: Future with mobility, not without in software market – An increasing number
   of barcode software solution providers will extend label printing support to portable devices (both purpose-built and consumer-grade) – facilitating mobile applications such as field sales, field service and direct store delivery (DSD). Today, mobile barcode label generation software penetration is in a very nascent stage, but we expect that to quickly change. Mobility IS the way forward across verticals and industries and the entire barcode value chain must and will respond accordingly.
4. Barcode: Embrace the tech-savvy consumer – Scanning with and displaying barcodes on mobile device screens will continue to grow significantly among consumers. Barcode vendors and their enterprise and retail customers must continuously adapt to this explosive trend. We predict more QSRs (quick service restaurants), convenience stores, restaurants, theme parks/ entertainment venues and other consumer-facing enterprises will invest in and deploy barcode imagers and consumer-grade mobile devices to interact with consumers (e.g., coupon redemption, payment, loyalty/rewards programs).
5. MCET: Mobile point-of-sale (mPOS) will remain the hottest technology among B2C business operators – This trend will be most prominent in retail, but increasingly in dining as well, despite the fact that enterprises often lack clear strategic objectives guiding their investment in the same. In 2013, MCET solution providers must assume leadership roles in educating their customers on technology selection, software and security, best-fit use cases for specific mobile devices/form factors and total cost of ownership (TCO).
6. MCET: NFC as a broader ecosystem will make little progress beyond incremental gains in
   shipments of NFC-enabled smartphones – Yes, this means more NFC-equipped phones in consumer hands, and limited scale pilots and tests will continue, but 2013 is not the year when the technology gains global-level traction. However, expect more TV commercials for mobile phones and mobile network operators (MNOs) to advertise NFC and its applications – and more importantly, look for more commercials to specifically mention the term “NFC” in order to engrain the technology in consumer minds.
7. MCET: Merchants’ general focus on mobility - mPOS in particular - will bring great opportunity for vendors of adjacent peripherals – POS peripheral vendors (e.g., receipt printers, barcode scanners, payment solutions) are expected to drive growth via innovative, highly-portable versions of these traditional POS extensions. These vendors will be jockeying for competitive position more aggressively in 2013, responding to burgeoning demand among retailers, restaurants, hospitality and other enterprises wanting to differentiate and augment their systems by  “going mobile” at the POS.
8. MCET: Contactless mobile payment via NFC will not explode in popularity among consumers during 2013, but consumer usage and merchant support of this application will experience strong growth – Barcodes displayed on mobile device screens and core/traditional RFID (e.g., contactless tickets, smartcards) – not NFC – will continue to enjoy broader global support for mobile payments in the foreseeablefuture. For NFC to gain ground in 2013, more NFC-enabled devices must reach consumer hands, more NFC-compatible payment terminals must be deployed and more collaboration among invested parties must occur within the NFC ecosystem (especially in terms of consumer education, transaction fee negotiations/resolution, and application development).
9. RFID & RTLS: Vendors – especially RTLS solution providers – will develop the “healthcare
   stare” – The use of RFID and RTLS is on the rise in healthcare, most notably in the US thanks to the VA’s announced $540M+ contract to track equipment and supplies at 21 of its Veteran Integrated Service Networks (VISNs).  However, the contract award to HP was not met without controversy in 2012 as IBM filed a protest to the US Government Accountability Office (GAO) and won the decision. The contract will be rebid among, at least, the six original bidders.  This spark to the market (and sizeable contract) drew a lot of attention in 2012 and we expect the RFID and RTLS frenzy to continue in healthcare in 2013. However, we caution vendors (especially RTLS providers) to not focus solely on healthcare and to seek opportunities and market development in other vertical markets where the competitive field may be less crowded.
10. RFID & RTLS: Passive UHF EPC item-level tagging (ILT) in the apparel sector will
    pick up the pace after a somewhat slow 2012 – This past year was a mild disappointment in terms of retailer deployment of RFID for ILT of apparel. For example, no major reader or printer/encoder orders were delivered, several large retailers remain behind originally announced plans (e.g., Wal-Mart, JC Penney) and some newer programs were pushed to or will start in 2013.  So what to expect in the year ahead? Even more American Apparel stores will go live with RFID (a bright spot for 2012 as well), Wal-Mart will reassess its RFID plans but remain committed, Macy’s will make its anticipated move, JC Penney has bigger worries than RFID, international retailer Zara will play a key role in increasing tag volumes and RFID EAS will become a more critical part of the ILT in apparel conversation.
11. RFID & RTLS: Embedded RFID keeps the forward momentum – At the end of 2011 we
    noted the rise of “RFID inside,” or embedded RFID, as a key trend to watch for in 2012.  We are keeping it on the list in 2013 after seeing a great deal of progress in 2012. For example, ThingMagic released a new, smaller passive UHF reader module, Xerafy continued product development for embedded RFID specialty tags (e.g., tools), ICs and chipsets from players such as Impinj, NXP, Murata and AMS decreased their footprints, Coca-Cola Freestyle dispensers with passive UHF technology inside continued deploment, RFID and NFC made their way into consumer devices such as Keurig Vue coffee brewers and Nintendo Wii (Skylanders game) and much more. With price points declining and form factors shrinking, we expect to see solutions and applications such as these expand and new innovations to be introduced in 2013.
12. RFID & RTLS: Honeywell Scanning & Mobility will get strategic on RFID – and quickly
    – after announcing its first RFID product and the acquisition of Intermec in 2012 – After some exploration of RFID while acquiring several barcode scanner and mobile computing companies over the last few years, Honeywell made some eye-catching RFID moves in 2012. They made a subtle move in introducing an RFID reader and then made a major move in announcing the acquisition of Intermec (a major RFID IP holder and RFID equipment manufacturer). We predict Honeywell will aggressively develop its RFID strategy in 2013, becoming a strong competitor in select verticals and applications that play to the combined strengths of Honeywell and Intermec. What’s next for Honeywell – RTLS in 2013 or 2014?
13. AutoID: Governments in China and the EU continue to connect with the concept of the Internet of Things (IoT) – While the US government remains largely silent, China and
    the EU actively fund research IoT projects, create policies to govern the IoT and deploy IoT technologies (including RFID, NFC and sensors). Much of the IoT activity in the US has been at the city level (e.g., smart cities) and we do not expect that to change. In looking ahead and predicting where will be the epicenter of IoT innovation, we are placing our bets on China. Simply look at what is on the list of IoT development subsidy projects from China's Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and Ministry of Finance (announced November 2012). UHF and microwave RFID chip design, product technology R&D, miniaturized intelligent sensor technology R&D, ad-hoc networking technology for wireless sensor networks, intelligent logistics and intelligent traffic are among the 14 categories of project, comprising 149 projects in total, which will receive support from the government.

I would like to extend a special thank you to Richa Gupta (VDC’s barcode analyst) and John Shuster (VDC’s MCET analyst) for their contributions to this blog.

France-based m.Wallet Consortium Leader Chooses Barcode, not NFC

Auchan, a leading French supermarket chain, announced plans to launch a cross-merchant m.wallet app called Flash ‘n’ Pay (FNP). The FNP app will be very similar to the one currently in development at the Merchant-Customer Exchange (MCX), which we discussed in a previous post. Like MCX, the FNP app can be used with all credit/debit card brands, supports loyalty cards and is MNO and issuing-bank agnostic. FNP also shares the same enabling technology as MCX—the app will be barcode-based, not NFC.

Whereas France is among the countries leading European NFC adoption, one might understandably assume that a retailer-led m.wallet app designed for that market would be NFC-based, not barcode. However, NFC faces many of the same fundamental challenges to mass adoption in France that it does in most other countries: 

• NFC-based apps cannot be used by many current smartphone users—barcode is accessible to virtually all
• NFC-based payment requires cooperation across multiple stakeholders—barcode does not
• Barcode-based apps are easier and less costly to support—and many B2C merchants already have the requisite 2D imagers installed at the POS

Certainly, NFC adoption in France is stronger relative to most other national markets, thanks in large part to the French government’s recent commitment to fund contactless transportation infrastructure in approximately 15 cities. However, NFC’s long-term potential as a B2C commerce enabler in France—and in most countries, save for a select few in Asia-Pacific—remains highly uncertain.

We view Auchan’s selection of barcode for its m.wallet as a particularly noteworthy development by virtue of its regional context. If an NFC m.wallet is not viable for a French retailer, in which countries is it?  From our perspective, the FNP announcement demonstrates how far NFC has yet to progress before it attains mainstream status, even in the countries/regions where adoption is relatively strong today.

AutoID Market Shakeup - VDC's Thoughts on Honeywell Acquiring Intermec

At VDC, we have now, in a way, come to expect big acquisition-related news towards the end of calendar years – case in point, Datalogic’s acquisition of Accu-Sort and SMARTRAC N.V.’s acquisitions of UPM, KSW and Neology in Q4, 2011. Throughout 2012, VDC has talked about how we expect to see leading players in the space – for both barcode scanners and printers – to consider consolidating their competitive landscape and strengthen their leadership position in existing markets while also tapping into adjacent high-growth market opportunities. On December 10th, 2012, Honeywell International Inc. (NYS: HON) did just that – announcing its acquisition of one of the global leaders of AIDC solutions, Intermec (NYS: IN), for approximately $600 million in an all-cash transaction. Intermec is the only company involved in the development, manufacture, sale and integration of all core AIDC technologies (barcode scanners, barcode printers, RFID, rugged mobile computers, etc.), thereby giving enterprises with AIDC solution requirements a “one stop shop” alternative. Our focus in this blog post will be on highlighting the impact of the company’s acquisition on the barcode and RFID markets.

From a strategic perspective, some of the key benefits that Honeywell can leverage via this acquisition include:

1. Honeywell has registered strong performance in the barcode scanning market since its acquisitions of Metrologic Instruments and Hand Held Products in the last decade. The company, however, has had an extremely limited presence, if at all, in other AIDC markets. It is only in May 2012, for example, that Honeywell’s AIDC division launched its first RFID-enabled device – the Optimus™ 5900 RFID mobile computer – capable of reading EPC Gen2 and ISO 18000-6B RFID tags. With this deal, the company has bought an immediate entry into several adjacent technology markets given Intermec’s relatively strong play in barcode and receipt printers, consumables, RFID printer/encoders, RFID readers, and other hardware. VDC considers Intermec’s strong IP (intellectual property) in the RFID market to have been a crucial decision driver for Honeywell especially as the company looks to capitalize on new, high-growth opportunities in this multi-billion dollar market – most notably in the Manufacturing and T&L verticals.
2. Intermec’s value proposition as a “one stop shop” for AIDC resonates, in particular, with warehouse and manufacturing IT professionals looking to standardize on one branded platform. The company has also been investing resources towards building out its presence in the health care services market – with new product introductions and channel alliances. This acquisition thus gives Honeywell significant leverage in these vertical markets.

Despite all these synergies, VDC expects Honeywell to face stiff challenges as it looks to revive Intermec’s financial performance in its key markets – across regions, verticals and technology segments – and minimize the revenue impact of economic volatility in Europe. The company has, however, been very active with new product introductions across its barcode scanning and printing portfolios over the past 6-12 months, showcasing a continued focus on research and development initiatives.

The deal is a very strategic move by Honeywell and certainly shakes up the competitive landscape in the AutoID market. The addition of Intermec’s large installed base of customers and channel partners to its own positions the company for continued success in increasingly difficult and demanding operating conditions. Questions remain on what this means for Intermec’s employees, product lines and channel. And we will have the answers for you once this acquisition closes out in 2013.

VDC Heads to the Big Apple for CET World 2012

The VDC AutoID team was in the Big Apple on Wednesday for the 2012 edition of Customer Engagement Technology World (CETW). Despite the recent hardships caused by Hurricane Sandy last week, this year’s show went on as scheduled and drew the usual, diverse crowd of vendors and end-users that attend CETW. Although the show floor was somewhat dominated by vendors of kiosk and digital signage hardware, software and solutions, other areas of the CET spectrum—including POS/mPOS terminals, consumer-facing mobile apps and customer analytics—were also well represented. Our observations at CETW 2012 left us with a several takeaways:

• Self-service solutions are alive and well. As we discussed in a recent post, during the past 12-18 months we have observed a certain level of anti-self-service sentiment among some end-user verticals, including restaurants/dining and retail. While there are definitely examples of enterprises that are moving away from self-service solutions, including self-checkout, kiosks and some forms of interactive displays, these particular instances are not indicative of any mass migration away from these technologies. In fact, these self-service solutions continue to evolve and progress in regards to their functionality and ease-of-deployment. Companies such as NCR are developing more capable and more easily-integrated self-service technologies, such as their NetKey offering.
• Merchant/retailer interest in mobility solutions continues to build. The concept of mobility—whether in the context of m.POS, m.payment or any other enterprise application—continues to build momentum. In regards to m.POS and m.payment especially, it seems these concepts have become so trendy as of late that some end-users are evaluating investment in them simply due to the buzz surrounding them. Several mobility vendors we spoke with at the event noted they are hearing from an increasing number of merchants who want to invest in m.POS/m.payment solutions—but have not defined the objectives for their deployment of the same. While these cases may be more of an indictment of the technology strategy—or lack thereof—at the merchants in question, we also see it as a strong indicator that retailers have generally acknowledged the value mobility provides in many applications.
• Personalized communications/offers that cater to individual preferences are a good start, but there is still a long way to go. For example, to engage a customer and maintain his/her loyalty it is equally important—if not more so—to avoid suggesting things that a customer may dislike or find offensive. Similarly, context and timeliness of communications are also important dimensions to consider—as events such as birthdays, anniversaries, or (to cite a timely example) storms and other natural events may have important implications for what a consumer wants—or does not want—to hear from a merchant. Clearly, tailoring communications to this level of precision is far more complex and challenging than simply making add-on sale suggestions or deal offers based on past purchase history—but with the increasingly advanced capabilities of analytics and other data-management tools, it is not an impossible task. 

For VDC, CETW 2012 was an informative, interesting and timely event, particularly as we prepare to launch its new MCET research program in the upcoming months. Contact us for more information about that research, in which we will discuss the above trends and many others impacting merchants and the technology providers that serve them.

Urban Outfitters CIO Says Its Checkouts are Going Fully Mobile

In a recent post, we discussed the impact mobile POS adoption is having on the broader POS market, particularly in the context of stationary POS heavyweights like NCR, IBM, Wincor-Nixdorf and the like. Long story short: m.POS has proven itself to be a valuable retail tool during the past 18-24 months, and has reshaped the POS competitive landscape as a result. An increasing number of merchants are investing in mobile POS, and in doing so, are disrupting some long-established conventions in retail automation technology. Urban Outfitters (UO) is among the latest examples of retailers that have committed to m.POS—and this particular apparel retailer has done so in a big way. The Company’s CIO announced last week that its stores will abandon stationary checkouts and go fully mobile in the near-term.

Urban Outfitters is no m.POS newcomer, having used mobile POS in its stores for approximately two years. However, its shift to a fully mobile checkout strategy marks an unprecedented level of commitment to the technology for the company. Until now, UO deployed mobile POS only as a complementary solution alongside its traditional, stationary terminals. As with its earlier deployments, UO’s chain-wide m.POS rollout will use iPad and iPod touch devices running an application that supports returns/exchanges, stocking, inventory inquiries and special orders—in addition to standard checkout and payment functions, of course.

As is typical with m.POS deployments, UO cited improving customer experience and empowering employees as key factors driving the transition to a 100% mobile POS solution. Interestingly, UO also acknowledged the cost advantage of mobile vs. stationary terminals—something most retailers do not mention when discussing their mobile investment. According to the Company, its iPad-based terminals are approximately 1/5^th the cost of a standard stationary terminal, while iPod-touch based units are only 1/10^th. Obviously, the lifecycle of consumer-grade devices will not match that of the more robust enterprise-grade POS terminals, but we wonder exactly how much more frequently the iPad/iPod touch will be need to be replaced.

While VDC believes in the value, utility and long-term viability of mobile POS in retail and other types of merchants (especially hospitality, including QSRs, fast casual and table service restaurants) we are not sold on the notion that mobile POS is a universal replacement for traditional, stationary checkout. Certainly, some brands and store formats (e.g., Apple Stores) are well-suited to going fully mobile. Conversely, such a move could be entirely disastrous in other merchants for a variety of reasons, including large average basket sizes, store size and layout, for example. That being said, we think Urban Outfitters’ store size, layout and brand image bode well for a successful transition to an all-mobile POS strategy. Mobile POS is one of the markets VDC will be tracking in our 2013 MCET research. Click here to learn more.

Happy 60th Birthday to the First Barcode Patent Filing!

This week marks the 60th birthday of the first patent filing for a technology that is very close to our hearts here in the VDC AutoID practice: barcode. To most people, a barcode is nothing but a bunch of black and white lines on the products they purchase at the store, but for us—the AutoID professionals and enthusiasts of the world—the barcode is an efficient, elegant and cost-effective way of storing and accessing data that has stood the test of time.

In the technology world, 60 years is an eternity. Reflect briefly on the devices/ technologies that seemed cutting edge just 10 or 15 years ago, and we bet you will smile reminiscing about the simpler days of dial-up modems, Zack Morris-style cell phones and good old PDAs. Now consider that barcode existed for decades before all of these things, and that it is still alive and well today. In many ways, it is a notable achievement. While barcode is certainly a mature technology, we see a strong future ahead for the barcode market, thanks to its ongoing evolution and the development of vertical- and application-specific uses. VDC sees a other indicators of barcode’s vitality:

• Increased consumer use of mobile barcode for a range of commerce-related applications including couponing, loyalty, information access and even payment. Demonstrated consumer interest in scanning barcodes via their smartphones is driving retailers, hospitality providers, CPG brands and other consumer-facing enterprises to invest in solutions that engage these shoppers.
• The US FDA’s Unique Device Identifier (UDI) mandate will increase barcode adoption (and other AutoID solutions) in healthcare: The federal UDI mandate, set to take effect in 2014 for high-risk (i.e., implantable) medical devices (and subsequently for lower-risk categories) requires all medical devices to be marked with a unique code containing critical information including manufacturer, model number and expiration date. While we expect barcode will not be the only solution used to comply with this regulation, it is highly likely to play a prominent role.
• New symbologies have recently emerged, and others are in development. Han Xin Code and Ultracode, for example, are two of the most recently introduced barcode types. Han Xin codes were developed to encode large numbers of Chinese, numeric and ASCII characters, and can be printed in multiple sizes, while Ultracode was designed for printing on uneven surfaces that are poorly-suited to standard symbologies. We expect additional symbologies could emerge in the future to address specific requirements, particularly for consumer-facing applications.

Some NFC and RFID evangelists claim these technologies will ultimately lead to the demise of the barcode. VDC does not expect that to happen, nor do we expect any major market shift away from barcode to occur anytime soon. Barcode has a lot of momentum and will be extremely difficult to displace:  it is universally supported, highly cost-effective (from both a printing and hardware/solution perspective), familiar to consumers and enterprises and boasts 40 years of proven experience in retail—barcode was first tested by Kroger Supermarkets in 1972, 20 years after its invention. The “scanless”/contactless future NFC and RFID promise could very well become reality someday far from now, but for the time being, we expect barcode to remain dominant in most applications. Happy birthday, barcode…

A Quick Scan of the 2012 AIM Summit Conference

Last week the VDC Auto ID team visited Chicago for the 2012 AIM Summit. AIM (Association for Automatic Identification and Mobility) is an industry standards and education organization dedicated to all AutoID and Mobility technologies—including barcode, RFID, RTLS and mobile devices. VDC was pleased to participate in this year’s event—both as attendees and presenters. AutoID VP Mike Liard delivered the opening keynote address during which he discussed current trends impacting the barcode and RFID markets. With a broad focus encompassing all AutoID technologies, there was a lot to take in during the event. Here are some of the key highlights:

• We believe the US FDA’s Unique Device Identifier (UDI) initiative could have a major impact on adoption and usage of Auto ID solutions in the healthcare vertical: Essentially, UDI is a federal mandate that will eventually require all medical devices to be individually marked with a code containing important information including manufacturer, model number and expiration date. Complex, high-risk (i.e., implantable) medical devices will be the first class of product to be effected by this new regulation (in 2014), but over the course of the following 5 years, the mandate will extend to other device classes as well. While the major objective driving the UDI legislation is improving patient safety and the effectiveness of medical device recalls, VDC believes the initiative could benefit healthcare enterprises by improving insight to their supply chains and supply inventory levels as well. Of course, realizing these adjacent UDI benefits may necessitate healthcare enterprises to augment current AutoID systems, but if the opportunity for strong ROI is there, we expect investment to follow.
• The barcode market is no longer just about linear and standard 2D barcodes: New 2D symbologies such as Han Xin code are emerging, and could have an impact on certain segments of the market. Han Xin code, introduced about a year ago, is a new two-dimensional matrix symbology. Han Xin codes are particularly effective at encoding large numbers of Chinese, numeric and ASCII characters, and can be printed in 84 different sizes. However, since this symbology is largely designed to encode Chinese characters, we expect its impact to be mostly limited to China and other parts of the Asia-Pacific region.
• Another relatively new symbology, called Ultracode, is also gaining traction: Ultracode was designed for printing on uneven surfaces/materials that are generally poorly suited to printing standard symbologies (e.g., stone, fiberboard, wood and other irregular surfaces). Also, thanks to its ability to be read even when damaged, Ultracode is also favored for applications where barcodes are highly susceptible to being damaged, such as supply chain and T&L.

In addition to being a great forum for engaging with the entire AutoID community, this year’s AIM Summit also provided a special opportunity to remember Bert Moore, a longtime industry advocate and AIM member, who passed away earlier in the year. Bert was given a heartfelt tribute during the post conference dinner and awards program—a fitting gesture considering his contributions to both the AIM organization and the broader AutoID industry for many years. VDC thanks AIM and its constituents for another great event and we look forward to next year’s show.