VDC Research: Embedded Microprocessor, Board & Systems Market Blog

Is Embedded Hardware Even Safe from Anonymous?

The recent hacking of security firm Stratfor’s website as well as Specialforces.com by hacker group Anonymous has led to questions of how secure large firms are against data theft. One can logically extend the question to the embedded world as well. A prime example in the embedded context is the Stuxnet worm that set back Iran’s nuclear ambitions. As the number of connected devices increases exponentially, the quality of security incorporated into them can only become more paramount. With groups like Anonymous quick to exploit weaknesses, it will likely be a continuous quest to avoid embarrassing security failures at the embedded level.

The needs for this security are evident on many levels. On one hand, as embedded devices are increasingly connected, there are all manners of confidential data that may begin to pass through these embedded systems. For instance, as hospitals begin to incorporate more embedded technology, will patient records become increasingly vulnerable to hacking? Undoubtedly yes. On the other hand, there is the issue of intellectual property in the embedded device itself.  An example is the on-chip memory in a processor which holds valuable code and possibly important data. Both the confidential data packets and the processor IP will require innovative security in the coming years. 

So, what is the embedded industry doing about it? While power, price, and performance have been the classical drivers in the embedded market, there is no doubt that embedded designers are beginning to take security very seriously. The areas of virtualization, encryption, deep packet inspection, etc. are all technical areas that offer potential solutions to security concerns.  As an example, embedded processor supplier Intel’s McAfee division has developed a technology called DeepSAFE, that functions beneath the operating system to protect against stealth rootkits and ATPs.  This kind of technology offers a new level of protection for embedded hardware.  In all likelihood however, as we move into 2012, new technologies will offer new weaknesses for hackers to exploit and for embedded security to defend against such attacks.

5 Keys to Winning and Holding Embedded Computer Share in the Semiconductor Test Market

With respect to Embedded Integrated Computer Systems (EICSs) the semiconductor test market has some unique attributes that may not be immediately obvious or logical to outsiders. The recent VDC report on EICSs used in the industrial automation market estimated 2010 revenues of ~$210 Million for semiconductor processing making it an attractive market to enter. Embedded computing suppliers that thrive here are likely to follow these 5 key rules.

Make it small: Floor space is at a premium in wafer fabrication/semiconductor test facilities. These facilities are often very carefully controlled for dust, static, electrical interference, vibration, temperature, and humidity and therefore represent some of the most expensive square footage in the industrial automation market with respect to operating costs. Computers that can be embedded inside or flexibly mounted to take advantage of available niches in test cells and or test equipment are well received.

Make it Fast: Reducing test times for a given device by even a few milliseconds or having the ability to test many devices in parallel are keys to winning the tester sale. EICSs in addition to deeply embedded Digital Signal Processing (DSP), Field Programmable Gate Arrays (FPGAs) and Application Specific Integrated Circuits (ASICs) are often used in high quantity to achieve this goal. It is important to remember that a semiconductor tester has to be faster than the state of the art devices it is testing. In this blog, I am focusing on EICSs but many of the 5 keys are applicable to deeply embedded computing components as well.

Make it easy/fast to service: Semiconductor testers are extremely expensive with it being quite easy for a well configured unit to cost several million dollars. Even so, the return on investment can be made in only a few weeks to the owner. Therefore, any downtime is very visible and Mean Time to Repair (MTTR) is expected to be in minutes, not hours. Suppliers should design EICSs to have very high reliability but also with easy to access mounts, enclosures, and internal components that allow them to be serviced while wearing a clean room suit and gloves.

Make a flexible configuration: The EICS that is required for a semiconductor tester varies depending on the role it is asked to perform. A production tester needs only a simple Human Machine Interface (HMI) but one that is used for test program development and debugging will need more memory depth and graphics capability to allow the engineer to see and manipulate test patterns as well as analyze the data that is captured while tests are run.

Make it exactly the same – for a long time: A semiconductor test platform will usually be actively sold for at least 5 years but often needs to be supported for at least 10 years and sometimes even longer. Once a tester platform is discontinued a market can develop for the used ones and, in some cases for them can be equal to or even exceeding their original factory price. This can happen when the demand for some legacy semiconductor devices becomes higher than expected. Once a test program has been written and specialized probe cards for wafers and/or interface boards for packaged device handlers have been designed it is extremely expensive process to move them to another tester platform.

Throughout the entire tester platform lifecycle, any changes in embedded computers can require that thousands of hours be spent to re-certify test programs and debug them if problems are seen. Faster computers will often be problematic if, for example, the programmer did not have enough settling time after an instrument was set up before making the measurement.
Changes to an EICS can also lead to increased inventory costs. Because of the MTTR concerns discussed earlier, caches of spare parts are stocked in globally dispersed warehouses and even right at customer sites to allow instant or very quick availability should a failure occur. Changes to an EICS can require multiple sets of slightly different inventory to be stocked.

In summary, a key to winning an embedded hardware product sale to a semiconductor tester company is being active in the design phase and then executing a commitment to provide a stable product through the entire tester product lifecycle. The surprise can be that a newer, faster, or cheaper EICS product will typically not unseat the incumbent unless the original supplier falters in one of the 5 key areas.

An Innovative Application for EICS in Petroleum Product Market Saves Transportation Costs

As part of a VDC project on level sensors I had a very interesting conversation with a UK based distributor of level sensing products. This distributor provides level sensors to oil/kerosene tank manufacturers. During the conversation he mentioning a trend away from from simple sight glass gauges to more expensive electronic level sensing units. Despite the higher price of the new technology it allows several benefits to the end users of petroleum products and the companies that sell and deliver them. By using an Embedded Integrated Computer Systems (EICS) in a telematic/networked monitoring application, a petroleum product delivery company could derive several benefits including lower transportation costs.  Let me provide a little background and explain how this connected process works:

Price Contracts: Small business and residential customers can be severely affected by rising prices. A small disruption like Iran’s activities in the Straits of Hormuz, political unrest in an oil producing country, or changes in weather patterns can cause prices to spike. On the other hand, government intervention, warmer weather and/or lower demand can cause prices to fall. As a result of this uncertainty home, small business, and farm owners will often contract with the local supply/delivery company on a fixed price basis.

Transportation/Delivery: Petroleum products like heating oil usually have to be delivered to these types of customers by truck. Often times these locations are outside urban areas and therefore the heating oil deliveries are more difficult to do efficiently because of distance and customers being less concentrated geographically. The most efficient and cost saving process is to load the truck to the exact level needed to correctly serve all the customers in a selected area and, upon doing so, return to the facility completely empty.

How the Process Works: On the end customer side the electronic level sensor connects to the delivery company’s EICS powered application via a phone or network connection and provides data on the current level of the product in the tank. By doing this the following benefits are seen:

 

• The delivery company can ensure the customer never runs out even if there is an unexpected surge in usage.
• The delivery company can efficiently set up truck loads for given sections in its service area.
• The delivery company can top off tanks when prices are low and let them run lower when prices are high - confident that they will not let customers run out.
• The customer can get a lower price particularly if they sign the contract.
• The delivery company can make sure that customers do not break an exclusive contract by taking deliveries from a lower priced competitor. If customers did this, the level sensor would inform the delivery company of an unexpected rise in level in their customer's tank.

And there you have it.  Networked tank level sensors and an EICS controlled application can actually decrease transportation and other costs for petroleum product delivery firms as well as their customers.

Chips Down in Mobile, Intel Ups the Ante in 2012 with its Medfield Platform

A stamp of approval from MIT’s Technology Review, the world’s oldest technology magazine, suggests smartphones based on Intel’s Medfield CPU may give us even more to celebrate in early 2012.  Having struggled for years to enter a mobile space dominated by ARM-based CPUs, Intel’s recent release of prototype reference designs, for Medfield-based smartphones and tablets, may lift the hopes of a market previously skeptical of x86-based smartphones / tablets.  According to Technology Review, Intel’s system-on-a-chip (SoC) Medfield CPU has enabled “a chip that can match and even surpass established mobile chips.”  

Intel’s Strong Push in Mobile 

Strategic investments by Intel in research, development, and production technologies have enabled Intel to achieve significant power savings with Medfield CPU – a relative weak point for Intel’s x86 CPUs – while preserving the strong processing capabilities upon which Intel has built a name.  The smartphone reference design demonstrates the effectiveness of Intel’s combination of the Medfield CPU with a PowerVR GPU (GMA 3600), with an eight megapixel camera able to capture 10 full-size images at a rate of 15 per second in “burst mode.”  The imaging and image processing capabilities enabled by the CPU are a big step ahead for Intel, which has struggled to match the advanced graphics of competitors NVIDIA and AMD. 

However, beyond competing with the power-efficiency and cost-savings enabled by ARM-based CPUs, Intel must also assure that its x86-based devices are supported by a strong software ecosystem.  A mobile device with an Intel CPU would be useless without a range of operating systems designed to take advantage of the unique strengths of Intel’s x86 hardware, and the support of developers ready to create software for these products.   Through acquisitions, partnerships and investments, Intel has developed a more robust software ecosystem to compete in the mobile environment – most notably through its 2009 acquisition of Wind River and its recent partnership with Google to optimize Android for x86 devices.

2012: Intel versus ARM

While Intel’s circulation of these prototype designs represents a significant milestone for a company that has struggled to prove its potential in mobile, Intel has a long road ahead before companies such as Qualcomm, Marvell, and Samsung will see it as a threat.  The companies’ substantial infrastructure, including strong supplier relationships, worldwide distribution networks, advanced manufacturing facilities, and financial capital comprise a solid base for this multi-billion dollar company.  Initial reports regarding Intel’s Medfield prototype alleviate many concerns VDC has expressed regarding Intel’s success in mobile markets.

However, even Intel’s substantial base of resources cannot compensate for the significant advantage ARM maintains with a more highly-developed mobile software ecosystem.  OEMs and developers have invested significant time and money into these ARM-based devices, and may thus prove reluctant to abandon this architecture.  Intel’s work with Google to optimize Android for x86 and investment in programs such as AppUp (a fund financing applications and content development) cannot completely compensate for the porting challenges developers may face in switching to any new system architecture. 

More than anything, this news regarding Intel’s Medfield prototype represents a strong signal to mobile contenders of Intel’s determination to compete in mobile markets.  VDC believes we will see a rocky and drawn-out adoption process for Medfield phones, but these advances by Intel will serve as a strong fuel for competition amongst mobile processor manufacturers.  Competition in any market is generally good for consumers, as it attracts either innovation or pressure to lower prices.  We see this as a long-term play for Intel, building the foundation for further growth in mobile markets and setting the stage for Intel’s future.

 

Microcontrollers: Revolutionizing Technology through Power Saving and Security

During this holiday time, as we happily un-wrap our new iPhone, tablet, Nook, or other touch screen device, we will likely be blissfully unaware of the technology under our fingertips.  But inside many of these devices, microcontrollers are hard at work.  Microcontrollers from companies like Freescale, Microchip, Texas Instruments, STMicro, and Atmel Corporation.

Atmel recently released a new series of microcontrollers, specifically in its 32-bit AVR product portfolio.  Atmel has expanded its AVR UC3L and UC3A4 product lines and initiated a new product line called AVR UC3D.   Atmel has updated these product lines as follows:

• AVR UCL3: new memory and USB functionality
• AVR UC3D: new product line for entry-level 32-bit applications and capacitive touch support
• AVR UC3A4:  features high-speed USB and 128kB of SRAM

The first two microcontroller product lines feature an interesting capability called SleepWalking.  This technology allows peripherals to monitor incoming packets and enables these peripherals to decide whether to wake up the CPU or not.  As CPUs and associated RAM consume approximately 60%-70% of a given consumer device’s power, this offers significant potential power savings.  While one device in itself is insignificant, the aggregation of the potential power savings from similar devices across the globe could generate power savings on a meaningful scale. 

Another notable feature of the AVR UC3L microcontroller is the FlashVault code protection.  This technology lets on-chip Flash memory be partially programmed and then locked.  This allows the product to be released to 3^rd party vendors who can then add their own value-added service.  The intellectual property contained in the microcontroller Flash is thus kept secure.

VDC believes that these product lines highlight two of the biggest technology trends of the present and future: power and security.  With the proliferation of devices, power consumption must be reduced both from the individual user standpoint and from a global perspective.  Second, as more and more embedded devices are deployed, the security of the software in these devices is critical.  VDC expects microcontroller companies that address these issues will likely increase interest in their products.

UAVs, the “Social Networks,” of the Defense Supplier World, Attract Heavy Investment in 2012

New generations of sensors, high-capacity data networks, and integrated digital technologies emerging in military & aerospace markets have assured strong, continued investment for unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) technologies – even in the face of current budget cuts for the US Department of Defense.  Ranging from the sizeable, high-altitude Global Hawk and Predator Class UAVs to man-portable systems capable of launch by hand or bungee slingshot, this disruptive technology has reshaped military strategy around intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) applications.  

Viewed as the “social networks” of the defense supplier world, VDC expects coming years will see strong growth in UAV-enabling technologies, as new and existing players expand their portfolio of solutions targeted at the domain.  Much as early social media sites (e.g. Facebook, Myspace) attracted an influx of companies into social networking, VDC believes that increasingly sophisticated, real-time ISR applications – combined with the seemingly ubiquitous media attention given to UAV solutions – will drive even more players in the military & aerospace markets to invest in advancing UAV technologies.  

• Piloted remotely or - increasingly - autonomously, UAVs require high-performance computational systems capable of analyzing large amounts of data in near real-time.
• Advanced image processing and rendering technologies, including hardware accelerators, enable these systems to handle more processing, exploitation, and dissemination (PED) of data on the UAV.  For example, rather than streaming all gathered data to command centers for analysis, advanced UAV systems are capable of mining through this data to identify frames containing specific features (ex. green truck).  As this technology improves, UAV image processing will be accelerated to allow enhanced real-time transmission and analysis of mission-critical information.
• VDC also expects UAVs to be a prime market for small form factor embedded technologies, enabling potential growth for smaller CPUs (i.e. ARM-based, Intel Atom) and active backplane form factors (i.e. Mobile-ITX, Pico-ITX, PC/104).

VDC will soon be publishing a study analyzing the commercial market for embedded integrated computer systems (EICS) market within the military & aerospace industry (“Military/Aerospace:  Volume 4, Track 3: Embedded Integrated Systems Supplier Analysis”).  In this report, our analysts more thoroughly outline current macro, technological, and industry-wide trends impacting the military & aerospace vertical, and how VDC sees the market evolving.

Will AMD's New Strategy Shake up the Semiconductor Market?

Likely fueled by a combination of the company’s recent manufacturing challenges, struggling profitability, shrinking market share, and the recent lay off of nearly 12% of the company’s workforce, AMD’s new CEO Rory Read appears intent to forge a more decisive, independent future for AMD. Although we will have to wait until February for AMD to publicly unveil the company’s new strategic direction, recent actions and announcements illuminate the depth of change we can expect to see from AMD in coming months. In a recent interview with Mercury News, company spokesman Mike Silverman explained: “we’re at an inflection point...We will all need to let go of the old ‘AMD versus Intel’ mind-set, because it won’t be about that anymore.” 

So, if AMD intends to divert attention away from competition with its archenemy in the x86 architecture space, we are left wondering what the future will hold for this multinational semiconductor player. While AMD’s core competencies and strong presence in x86 will likely preclude drastic measures such as adoption of the ARM architecture, VDC anticipates significant changes from AMD in coming years, such as: 

• Stronger investment in research and development of power-efficient CPUs to compete with ARM in the tablet, smartphone and other high-volume mobile device markets.
• Growing focus on the company’s higher-margin server business, which saw double-digit revenue growth in the past year.
• Potential exploration of the microserver market, optimizing its low-power CPUs to meet the needs of cloud-based companies such as Amazon or Twitter.
• Continued efforts to transition chip manufacturing from Global Foundries, a 2009 spin-off of AMD, to Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), the world’s largest dedicated independent semiconductor foundry.  

For a company that has thus far appeared complacent playing second fiddle in markets dominated by Intel, developments such as these could truly represent the “inflection point” this Sunnyvale-based semiconductor company needs. VDC believes that while the degree of risk inherent in changes of this magnitude is indisputably high, these bold alterations to AMD strategy may finally set the company on a path to develop a strong and independent presence in the semiconductor market.