VDC Research: Embedded Microprocessor, Board & Systems Market Blog

Connect with VDC Research Group at embedded world 2012!

VDC Research Group will be joining the embedded world 2012 exhibition and conference.  Last year’s conference was a fantastic event, with numerous exhibitions and great presentations of embedded hardware.

VDC’s Embedded Hardware Team will be arriving February 27^th and will be at the conference through February 29^th.  During that time, we welcome the opportunity to connect with attending vendors.  We look forward to explaining VDC’s research methodology, learning about your latest product releases, and discussing your market research and strategic needs. 

If you would like to learn more about the show, please click here.

If you would like to schedule a meeting around Embedded Hardware, please contact:

Jonathan Hastings, Analyst, Embedded Hardware & Systems Practice, VDC Research Group at: jhastings@vdcresearch.com or 508.653.9000 x127.

Or

Chris Rommel, Vice President, Embedded Hardware & Systems Practice, VDC Research Group at: crommel@vdcresearch.com or 508.653.9000 x123.

If you would like to schedule a meeting around Embedded Software, please contact:

Jared Weiner, Analyst, Embedded Software & Tools Practice, VDC Research Group at: jweiner@vdcresearch.com or 508.653.9000 x143.

GE’s 4th Quarter: The Industrial Crystal Ball for Embedded Hardware in 2012?

General Electric released its 4^th Quarter 2011 earnings today. As many know, GE has grown from its humble beginnings in light bulbs to provide a spectrum of products from aircraft engines to financial services. While GE Intelligent Platforms makes embedded hardware, GE as a whole goes far beyond the world of embedded.  As a former GE engineer myself, I have seen firsthand the world-class technology GE brings to market. Since it is a global company with diverse industries, it is typically seen as a bell-weather indicator for the general economy that drives the vertical markets of the embedded industry.

So, what can we glean about the future of the embedded hardware markets from GE’s 4^th Quarter Earnings announcement?

First, off, CEO Jeff Immelt mentions “continued volatility for 2012” and restructuring GE’s business in Europe to match market conditions. Obviously, volatility is never a reassuring term. And the situation in Europe appears uncertain. VDC expects that this will mean fewer embedded hardware shipments to Europe, shifting the market share percentages towards the US and Asia-Pacific regions.

Total GE revenues for the quarter were $38 billion - down from many analysts’ expectations, and down 8% from the 4^th quarter of 2010. However, this was mostly due to the impact of GE’s sale of its majority stake in NBC Universal. GE is most likely making the right decision to focus on its core competency: industrial products.

But, GE’s global direction aside, what do their division results say for the future? Energy Infrastructure was up 16% Y-o-Y, which is promising. This energy infrastructure would have opportunities for a host of embedded processors, from smart grid applications to wind farms to gas power turbines. For GE, that meant $43.7 billion dollars in revenue. Lots of opportunities going forward assuming this kind of growth continues. Aviation and Healthcare were a more modest 7% growth Y-o-Y, but still over $18 billion in revenue for each segment. Surely there is some embedded hardware associated with that project revenue as well: microcontrollers into engine related equipment; CPUs, GPUs, and more into MRI, CT, X-ray, portable medical equipment, etc. Perhaps most impressive from a revenue growth perspective is Transportation: 45% Y-o-Y.  In 2009 and 2010, this segment posted revenue declines. 

What are the embedded hardware opportunities in transportation?  First, a closer look at what GE defines as Transportation.  This segment includes diesel locomotives, transit propulsion equipment, motorized wheels for off-highway vehicles, and a variety of other motor and system devices.  As the BRIC economies continue to expand, they are no doubt demanding a range of transportation technologies such as the ones GE offers, which all will likely require embedded hardware at some point in their deployment, so the opportunities for embedded hardware here are substantial.    

Transportation Embedded Computing: Cruise/Insurance Industry can Learn From Trucking Industry

In the days after the Costa Concordia disaster several things are known.  Approximately 30 people died and the cruise industry (Carnival in particular) and its insurers have experienced huge financial losses. Some say that the ship can be salvaged and back in operation within a year or two but, even so, the losses will be staggering both outright from the lawsuits and loss of cruise business as well as the rescue operations, environmental cleanup, and repair/replacement of the ship. In the aftermath there will be many questions raised about how this could have been prevented and, in my opinion, some of the answers lie within the trucking industry.

As I worked on completing the VDC report on Embedded Integrated Computer Systems (EICS) used throughout the transportation industry I saw several interesting trucking industry applications for these units. The truck application most relevant to the cruise industry takes advantage of there being some type of network connectivity even for mobile units. Embedded computers on the trucks collect, aggregate, and transmit data from sensors located throughout the truck, trailer, and cargo at regular intervals to telematic centers that have specialized embedded computers as well. Among the many things that can be measured and evaluated is driver performance. Are they driving safely? Are they using the most efficient, and safe routes? Are they making any unauthorized detours? Are they being fuel efficient and not placing too much wear and tear on the equipment? Knowing the answers to these questions provides trucking companies with the intelligence needed to make improvements in operational efficiency as well as risk reduction.

As most cruise ships have satellite enabled Wi-Fi services, I believe they could do ship monitoring on a near real-time basis. In fact, it is hard to believe that they don’t already do this or, if they do, the information is not processed into actionable intelligence. One interesting piece of data would be whether Captain Francesco Schettino or other cruise ship captains had taken similar risks/routes before. Cruise ship owners and their insurers should go over data archives to make sure they don’t have pattern of ships taking unnecessary risks. If they don’t have the data, they should install the same infrastructure that many trucking operations already have.

Security concerns represent a market growth opportunity for Embedded Cloud

As I am now working on the latest VDC report on the Embedded Cloud, I have great interest in how suppliers and their customers can take advantage of market opportunities. One obstacle to adoption by many IT and business executives has been security. This concern springs from the idea of sensitive data being transmitted over the cloud. The current VDC report looks at edge node devices that can be used to facilitate connections while, at the same time adding security layers. In my opinion, the weak spots of traditional computer network and file security architectures actually represent a market opportunity because of major differences in structure and security. Yesterday’s MSNBC World News Article highlighted 4 recent mishaps where UK government documents and/or data were lost at least temporarily and in one case actually published.

The lost materials were contained in printouts, laptops, and/or portable media. Even though secure information needs to be readily at hand for those that need it the computers they use to access it are not always in fixed locations with secure networks. It is safe to say that in most cases, even at sea or air, network connections are increasingly available 365days x 24hrs. This is where the embedded cloud architectures can address security issues. With embedded cloud architectures mission critical documents and data do not typically live on portable media. If they do, they are strongly encrypted and the keys are transmitted securely. A user has to present credentials (often biometric) in order to unlock and use/view data/files/documents. A lost laptop or person that becomes un-trusted can be locked out instantly. Biometrics and security questions can eliminate passwords that can be guessed or, possibly written down by the user.

From what I understand, many consumer devices use a similar cloud enabled strategy where purchased materials are stored centrally and secured copies are on the portable device. A loss of the device through theft or malfunction does not mean a loss of the material. Additionally, networked and embedded devices serve as waypoints of access to enterprise networks. Surely these new embedded cloud enabled architectures and devices should draw some interest in the security conscious markets.

Quanta Case versus AMD Underscores Importance of Component/Assembly Testing - Part 2

In the last week’s blog we looked at the semiconductor manufacturing process and the various testing steps that happen as raw silicon is turned into finished devices. In this week's follow up we continue looking at the testing process on the product manufacturing side. Last week we noted that Quanta was manufacturing notebook computers. Because of this, I want to make two observations about the product designs and manufacturing process for notebook computers.

• Notebook computer suppliers are continually trying to make them as thin and lower cost as possible. This means that Quanta might not have been using sockets and could be mounting the AMD/ATI devices directly on the circuit board. This can be a potential problem in some cases where the device was exposed to humidity before being heated as part of the surface mounted device (SMD) process as it can cause device degradation that leads to future failures.

• SMD processes increases costs with respect to failures as repairing a SMD CPU or Graphic component on a computer motherboard with hundreds of densely packed conductors is time consuming, difficult, and the scrap rate of the entire unit can be high.

• As the issue cited in the lawsuit is thermal in nature, it is worth noting that a higher power device such as a CPU or graphics chip often require heat sinks/cooling features to avoid problems. This is another area where manufacturing problems could have been introduced as these devices need to have excellent heat transfer to the cooling feature. Thermal pastes and a process to ensure optimal surface contact between the device and heat sink are needed.

Now, we will look at a few key testing steps on the product manufacturing side.

1.) Incoming Test: This process is considered as being redundant to supplier testing before shipment. Product manufacturers used to commonly test incoming components but, due to cost reduction pressures, that practice is now very uncommon outside the Mil/Aero market. Although it is not likely relevant to the Quanta vs. AMD/ATI case, counterfeiting and other supply chain related cases where lesser specification devices are re-labeled make incoming test more relevant again even in consumer type product manufacture.

2.) Circuit Board/Module Test: The fully assembled circuit board or module is tested before it is embedded in the final product. Thermal transfer issues can be identified by the use of infrared, optical, and or sensors. Repairs are expensive for problems found here but, it is still far less costly than having the product failing downstream.

3.) Highly Accelerated Life Testing (HALT): This is one last type of testing process that might have mitigated AMD and Quanta’s issue at either the packaged device, module/circuit board or completely assembled product stage. The unit being tested is put through extreme levels of hot and cold cycles while also experiencing other stresses such as vibration and g-forces. In this way, a myriad of potential production issues can be detected before the product ends up in customer hands and/or is in a mission critical role that embedded computers are frequently placed in.

In closing, HALT testing is an almost de-facto step in Military products let alone ones that might be launched into space. In Quanta’s case, you would never do this with all of the units but certainly at least a sample of them. If Quanta did not do this, the brand owner should have.  It does seem like a mystery to me about why this case is happening. It should be interesting to find out where the process became broken or which steps were skipped. If something interesting does come to light in the future we will surely revisit this case.

Quanta Case versus AMD Underscores Importance of Component/Assembly Testing - Part 1

This week I read of the lawsuit filed by Quanta Computer Inc. against AMD and its ATI division. The lawsuit alleges that components that they sold Quanta turned out to have heat tolerance related issues that caused the laptops they were used in to fail. It seems a little strange to me that Quanta is the only company with the problem unless they are buying a unique product or batch of products from AMD/ATI. Even so, with a multi-layered testing process the type of problem claimed by Quanta should not happen. The facts of the case will no doubt be revealed if additional claimants come forward and/or the case goes to trial.

Quanta is a Taiwanese contract manufacturer of notebook computers. Since they are a contract manufacturer this means that most of the finished goods they produce are someone else’s brand. They compete on the basis of cost and reliability/quality to get business from the owner of that brand. The damages they are seeking would be from their production losses from needing to repair or scrap finished products and/or subsequent damage to the perception of their own corporate brand.

This case has great relevance to the embedded hardware markets we cover and underscores the importance of a multi-tiered testing process. Therefore, I thought I would share some insights from my 30 year experience in the automatic test industry. I can safely say that despite the perception that testing increases cost, the costs of failure go up significantly at each step of the process between wafer creation and when the finished consumer/industrial product is completed. As one might understand, the absolute worst case is when the manufacturing/design failure occurs in the finished product when it is in the hands of the end customer. How can this be avoided? In this blog, I will look at the manufacturing process for semiconductor devices and, in next week’s follow up, I will look at what happens on the product manufacturing side.

1.) Raw Silicon Wafer: Optical checks are used to look for impurities and surface imperfections before the wafer goes through the extensive chemical/photo process that creates the semiconductor product. This test is very fast and it can save you the cost of chemicals and lost production time.

2.) Wafer Test: The semiconductor devices are still on the round wafer. The wafer is tested by using a probe mechanism that makes temporary contact with all of its contact pads. The tester than makes fairly extensive tests to make sure that the device is worth packaging. Tests can be made at various temperatures as part of this test cycle. In some cases, higher temperatures are used to speed up testing.

3.) Package Device Tests:

• Quick continuity and resistance tests are made to make sure the wire bonding/connecting process between the individual semiconductor dies and the package were good and that the device does not have any major faults.
• More detailed tests are then made to ensure the device works perfectly. Several cycles may be involved with the devices being subjected to high or low heat and less than optimal input voltages. The ultimate goal is to subject to the device to similar conditions to what it will see when it is installed in the finished product.

If the device passes through all of these testing steps, it is then further packaged for safe transport and easy assembly into the circuit board by the company like Quanta.In next week's follow up, we will look at what happens on the product manufacturing side.