VDC Research: Embedded Microprocessor, Board & Systems Market Blog

OEMs Shift Their Use of Professional Services to a Gain Competitive Edge

In 2013, VDC is seeing dynamic shifts in strategy for many OEMs as they respond to market pressures and position their organizations for future opportunities. As the economy improves, the calculus behind the professional services decision may change but most OEMs still prefer to outsource non-core functions. Although the OEM may be losing some product margin to pay for the services consumed, it is a small price to pay compared to the expense and risk of bringing processes back in house. Even so, we see that 10% of OEMs will be considering re-joining the 20% of their peers that do not utilize any professional services (Exhibit 1).

Exhibit 1: 2013 OEM cited current and future use of professional services

In these cases where the reduction in professional service use is being considered by the OEMs, there could be multiple forces and strategies at work. Sometimes it can be as simple as the OEM’s belief that if they want to do something right, they have to do it themselves. It also can be the result that recapturing the lost margins is worth the organizational costs and risks given the improving unit volumes. Although improving margins through insourcing may be part of the strategy, the largest gains are obtained when an OEM can better differentiate their product and therefore charge a premium price for it. Therefore, it is likely that OEMs with proprietary processes and technologies that provide differentiation feel they need to insource to protect their intellectual property.

Despite the advantages that insourcing may have, a growing majority of OEMs see outsourcing as the best way for reducing development costs while still being able to take advantage of new technologies. A prime example might be the new 4^th generation of i7 processors being rolled out by Intel. If an OEM was going to directly embed them, they would need to gain expertise and knowledge of the new Z87 Express chipset. It also might be difficult for an OEM to even obtain those components because they are likely to be in tight supply and the Intel alliance partners would be in a position to have better access. For similar reasons, an OEM would be better off looking to an embedded supplier for an AMD G-Series SoC based hardware product. In that case, the OEM could be focusing their internal resources on activities to develop an HMI application that fully utilized the embedded graphics capability. Doing so could make their product sparkle in ways a competitor might find difficult to duplicate let alone surpass.

At the Design West – Embedded Systems Conference 2013 – Part 1 the Embeddy

Last week, while attending the 2013 DESIGN West/Embedded Systems Conference in San Jose we presented the VDC Research Embeddy Award for the best new embedded hardware product. As part of the selection process the VDC Embedded Hardware team met with more than 30 companies to discuss product announcements and a variety of industry trends impacting the embedded hardware market today. Before we get to the award winner, we will start with a few highlights from some of the suppliers we spoke to at the show.

Connectivity enhanced Microcontrollers: Microchip usually makes several significant embedded hardware announcements at DW/ESC shows and this year was no exception.  VDC was given a detailed briefing on several new connectivity modules that OEMs can use for many applications. If the OEM's product already has a computing element, the new microchip modules are designed to easily integrate the needed Bluetooth, Wi-Fi, ZigBee, MiWi, and/or proprietary network types. If the OEM’s engineers have not settled on a processing element to interface with sensors or product components they might consider the modules that include integrated MCUs. The good news for OEMs is that the selection of any of these Microchip modules will likely eliminate product testing for overall FCC compliance and production test and calibration. Microchip demonstrated how a lighting OEM might integrate these new products in a way that would enable lighting products to be controlled in M2M applications including network based portals and authenticated mobile devices.

Secure M2M: Our next stop at the show was with Icon Labs and they were highlighting a new barrier/firewall device that was well suited for supporting M2M on legacy equipment in industrial applications. The unit we saw was targeted for a market price of ~$1K but included many security elements using Intel Atom processing and embedded software from Icon Labs’ partners including Wind River, ZiLog, McAfee, and Green Hills.

New Rugged Handheld Devices: At our next stop, the VDC EHW team was greeted by the enthusiastic ADLINK team and they had every right to be that way. There were a number of interesting products in many categories.  We were particularly interested in ADLINK’s foray into the enterprise handheld device market with the IMX-9000 which includes barcode reading capability, multiple connectivity protocols all contained in a stylish but rugged enclosure that is said to withstand IP67 and 1.5M drop tests. While at the ADLINK booth, we saw the new Advanced TCA processor blade. The new aTCA-9300 is well suited for media delivery platforms because of the need for scalable processing to deliver content in the needed forms and formats for the transmission and end use by the target device.

Media Processing: As a bit of background, it is not feasible to store content in all forms and formats suitable for delivery to, and use by, the huge numbers of things used to view them. This means that content has to be converted on the fly and that means there is a huge need for embedded processing products to perform these tasks.

ASICs and FPGAs: We received updates on the latest developments in the world of ASICs and FPGAs. We spoke with Altera who divides the majority of the FPGA market with Xilinx.  Altera  provided an update on the SoC FPGA line that was introduced in late 2011. The Cyclone V and Arria V FPGAs incorporate ARM CPU cores with FPGAs to allow OEMs to develop more powerful and flexible product designs while economizing on needed circuit board space.  One advantage that FPGAs normally have over ASICS is that they take less time to design and can be brought into production faster. If design issues are discovered at later stages, they can be corrected faster and at lower cost. The Altera inclusion of ARM cores allows OEM engineers to leverage many development tools that are available for ARM and that theoretically increases the advantages over traditional ASIC processes.

On the ASIC side, we received a briefing by Triad Semiconductor on their ViaASICs  and the associated development toolset ViaDesigner. The goals of these two products is to eliminate the time-to-market and development cost advantages of FPGA products over ASICs. The process works like this. In the semiconductor fab, the wafers are started and arrays of circuits and functional blocks are laid down but not configured and interconnected. These are then stocked until needed. An OEM engineer then uses the development tool that determines how the Triad chip will be configured. The data from that tool is sent to the fab and they create the mask(s) needed to for the next steps in the wafer creation process. The next steps lay down the layers needed for connecting the functional blocks creating a finished product.

New SBCs: Advantech highlighted a new compact design Single Board Computer (SBC) called the MIO-5290 that can be ordered with 3^rd Gen Intel i3 or i7 processors. With its ability to drive 3 independent displays with intense graphics, and the availability to add various I/O modules to customize the product, the MIO-5290 is well suited for many applications such as intelligent signage. The VDC team identified the MIO as one of the finalists in the Embeddy Award selection process.

Another finalist in the Embeddy Award selection process was WinSystems SBC35C series of products that utilize the 800 Mhz Freescale  i.MX 6Q Industrial Processor. There were several things that impressed us. The SBC35C board layout was very well thought out with industrial bus connections all on one side and the other needed connections on the other. The SBC35C can be run with Power over Ethernet (PoE) or a single DC source. The last thing that impressed us was the fact that the WinSystems team was showing their product the proper respect by handling the demo SBC with an anti-static bag. If they do that on the show floor, you can expect that their production and test process is also using similar precautions.

2013 Hardware Embeddy Winner: And now, without further ado, the winner of the VDC Hardware Embeddy award for the 2013 Design West / ESC show was AMD for their new G-Series family of SoC processors that we believe will make a big impact in the embedded hardware market.

ALPR = Big $$ for Embedded Hardware Suppliers

An interesting opportunity for embedded hardware suppliers caught the attention of the VDC M2M Embedded Platform team. The opportunity was highlighted in a Boston Globe article this week about a local police department that equipped a cruiser with a $28K Automatic License Plate Reader (ALPR) unit. There were a number of eye-popping statistics starting with the fact that the unit apparently paid for itself in the first 11 days it was deployed. The ROI was accomplished from revenues generated by identifying vehicles and drivers with expired licenses, registrations, inspections, or other unpaid fines and fees. ALPRs can also be used for parking enforcement particularly in areas where civilian officials want to encourage shoppers with low cost short interval parking spaces. In this parking application, an official uses an ALPR to detect commuters and/or store workers that try to take advantage of the potential arbitrage and fine them.

Now let’s look at the $28K bundle of embedded hardware and software and speculate a bit on what is likely to be involved. The ALPR cited by the Boston Globe had the capability to read 1,800 license plates per minute and cover 4 lanes of traffic simultaneously. It can make those readings at differential speeds of up to 150 mph. This is a key factor because the unit is mounted on a cruiser as opposed to a parking or toll-taking lane where only the vehicle would be moving and the zone where the license plate would be is more predictable. Therefore there has to be a camera system capable of capturing a wide field at varying focal lengths and light conditions. The torrent of data from the camera system has to be rapidly processed to identify license plates and simultaneously perform Optical Character Recognition (OCR) on 4 or more plates in the field of view. Additionally, the system has to identify the state that issued the plate. This is challenging because many states like Massachusetts issue multiple types of specialty plates for sports teams and other organizations or causes. States also control costs by not replacing license plates until they practically fall apart. Therefore, it is fairly safe to say that there would be approximately $10K in optics and high performance processing inside the ALPR to accomplish the OCR function.

What happens next is important. We are going to make an assumption and it is a big one. We will assume that the ALPR generates data that supports law enforcement but this data will not be a cornerstone for court cases. This means that the raw video would not need to be compressed and stored for future reference while preserving chain of custody. For example, if the ALPR were going to be used for moving traffic or criminal violations it would need to have irrefutable video evidence that identified the driver as well as speed measurement data. Because of our limited OCR assumption, the captured data only needs to be combined with time stamps, GPS coordinates and, perhaps a few operational parameters. As a result, this limited data set would be in the order of kbytes per record as opposed to Mbytes per second for full video archiving. Even so, this still represents several thousands of dollars per ALPR unit for the additional embedded sensing, processing, storage, HMI and communication hardware.

In our estimate, the next part of the ALPR application would optimally involve cloud-based Big Data resources. The ALPR would transmit captured data in real time and processed for matches in multiple databases. The response back to the police cruiser would have to be rapid to be effective. The most effective ALPR supporting infrastructure would have to combine data from all municipalities, states, and federal agencies relevant to a particular region. Suffice it to say, the cloud-based and communication services could easily amount to several hundred dollars per month for each ALPR deployed.

The Boston Globe article stated that there were already 87 ALPRs deployed in the state with another 7 Boston area police departments adding 21 additional in the next month. Considering that Massachusetts alone has over 350 cities and towns but the entire US represents over 36,000 municipalities, the potential market for ALPRs and the embedded hardware inside them would appear to be a huge and rapidly growing opportunity.

Moore’s Law – Where Do We Go From Here? (Part 3)

Of Carbon Nanotubes and Small Groups of Atoms

In the first two installments of this blog series (Part 1)(Part 2), we’ve touched on a variety of new developments that may allow continuing miniaturization, despite predictions of doom from some pundits. We’ve talked about some interesting things like single atom transistors, 3-D ICs and extreme ultra-violet lithography.  Although conventional wisdom places the limit of silicon transistors at about 11 nm, some folks at Intel have said that they have a solution for shrinking silicon down to 10 nm, and think that they may be able to go as far as 5 nm. But the science-fiction nut in me is most fascinated by new developments at IBM and Berkeley.

Terrestrial life as we know it is, of course, based on carbon. SF writers – and, indeed, some scientists – have proposed that, because carbon and silicon share many chemical properties (for example, the ability to form long-chain polymers), it might be possible to not only derive a silicon-based organic chemistry, but to actually have silicon-based life somewhere in this wondrous and infinite universe. Interesting, but as yet still science fiction.

However, what if we were to turn this around, and look at carbon and silicon from another angle? That’s essentially what’s going on at IBM, Berkeley and other research facilities.

As we all know, today’s semiconductor technology is based on silicon. But what if we were to substitute carbon for silicon? Would it be possible to create carbon-based semiconductors? Carbon atoms are far smaller than their silicon counterparts, so this might enable heretofore unimaginable miniaturization.

IBM’s people have successfully fabricated and evaluated a structure comprising an array of 10,000 carbon nanotube transistors on a single substrate. In essence, a carbon nanotube is a single-atom thick sheet of carbon, rolled into a tube. Normally, these appear as a mix of metallic and semiconducting types but, to create a computing device, the metallic types must be removed. And, as if that wasn’t tough enough, the placement and alignment of the tubes on a substrate must be precisely controlled. IBM has been able to accomplish this utilizing ion-exchange chemistry. Researchers at Berkeley have been able accomplish a similar feat, producing arrays both flexible and stretchable, which show great promise for developments such as foldable electronic pads, coatings that can monitor surfaces for cracks and other potential failures, “smart” clothing and even artificial electronic skin.

It is theorized that carbon nanotube transistor arrays, which can be produced with existing manufacturing processes, have the potential to yield CPU structures that are not only far smaller than their silicon counterparts, but are five to ten times faster than today’s silicon chips.

It’s not clear to me whether a single nanotube can only carry a single transistor, or whether it might be possible to produce many transistors at different locations on the surface of a single nanotube. While the latter may not be “do-able” today, who can say what will be possible tomorrow?

IBM scientists have also been able to determine that only twelve atoms are required to magnetically store a single bit of information. This is accomplished by precisely aligning their magnetic properties such that they do not interfere with other groups of atoms located nearby. It is projected that this technology could increase magnetic storage density on a hard disk drive by a factor of 100.

I suppose (though this is pure speculation) that it may also be possible to create ultra-dense storage through the use of carbon nanotubes. And, since nanotubes are inherently 3-D structures, they may lend themselves to the fabrication of 3-D chips as well.

Whatever happens, two things are clear to me. First, we are nowhere near the end of miniaturization and, second, the ability to produce computing devices with human, or even superhuman, computing ability may be fairly close. Can the development of truly intelligent machines with the ability to both replicate and evolve be that far away? I certainly hope I’m still around to see this.

The Next big Thing in Smart Phones is LITTLE

Last week, Samsung unveiled its latest Galaxy S4 Smartphone. The first wave of news indicated that it would be powered by Samsung’s new 8-core Exynos 5 octa processor.  This is exciting to us because it represents one of the first commercial rollouts of the ARM big.LITTLE technology.  Samsung intends to sell the Exynos 5 to other device makers as well. These types of processors although targeted for use in high-end mobile devices, may find M2M and embedded market traction as well because of the many functions that are included and the technology that balances processor speed and power consumption.

The Exynos 5 octa includes four powerful A-15 cores, each one paired with a subsidiary “energy sipping” A-7 core. The ARM technology allows seamless switching from one core to the other, depending upon the application. This heterogeneous approach allows the Exynos 5 to be as much as 70% more efficient than processors utilizing homogeneous cores.

The use of heterogeneous cores is not new, but other versions we have seen often have required some application design finesse to achieve a balance between energy conservation and performance. ARM’s big.LITTLE architecture, on the other hand, allows software developers to concentrate on the use of the four A-15 cores because the instruction sets for the A-15s and the subsidiary A-7s are the same.

Smartphones are not the only mobile products that can benefit from the big.LITTLE technology and processors such as the Exynos 5 octa. If Samsung or another supplier commit to making these military and/or industrial versions of these devices and to making them available for the extended periods of time that these markets require, we might see them make inroads in areas such as telematics M2M and/or micro unmanned platforms. These small-sized platforms have to operate autonomously for as long as possible, so power available for processing is a precious commodity. As with smartphones, loads on processing in mini unmanned and M2M platform applications can vary significantly, depending on the situation. Therefore, a 70% energy efficiency improvement might become the difference between a successful mission and one that is terminated before reaching its goal.

As this blog is posting, there is some information to suggest that the North American release of the Samsung S4 may not use the Exynos, instead using the Qualcomm Snapdragon 600. There are a few possible reasons for this potential processor swap. The first being given is that US carriers are presently more receptive to Qualcomm’s cellular modem technology. We believe that it is also possible that the supply of Exynos 5 octa chips is limited because of wafer fab capacity or yields. Lastly Samsung, like many phone suppliers, keeps each product platform fresh by introducing new derivatives. These incremental upgrades can serve to keep products popular with consumers, thereby maintaining revenue margins for suppliers and cellular providers.

VDC Initiating Coverage on SMARC Embedded COMs

Supplier interviews for VDC’s 2013 Embedded Hardware Service for Embedded Products are currently underway. As a result of a recent SGET (Standardization Group for Embedded Technologies) announcement, we will now be including SMARC as a separate form factor in VDC’s embedded COMs report. SMARC, formerly known as ULP-COM, comprises a Kontron-proposed SGET standard for ultra low power COMs. In 2013, Kontron has announced the release of 3 new SMARC products utilizing one of Freescale, TI, or NVidia ARM-based processors. Somewhat similar in appearance to the DIMM-PC COM form factor which originated with JUMPtec (acquired by Kontron in 2002), SMARC modules are edge-connected rather than pin-connected as are many other COM form factors.

We expect low power computing modules such as SMARC which take advantage of new low power SoC products will find traction in many embedded markets, particularly in M2M applications. OEMs should be very interested in products that can be added to their existing platforms to add M2M functionality. In cases where an OEM’s products were not future-proofed with respect to available space or power supply capacity, being able to add new computing modules that support M2M without costly retrofits can be a huge advantage. In cases where M2M is being designed into a new system, these ultra low power computing modules can add the necessary functionality without having a huge impact on Bill of Material (BoM) costs.

We believe that VDC’s coverage of SMARC and similar embedded devices is of critical importance, both to suppliers of those products as well as to their customers. To put it simply, nobody wants to “bet on the wrong horse.” For an embedded product standard to be successful, it would have to be supported by several suppliers and purchased by a solid and wide customer base. Given any uncertainty, customers and suppliers are more likely to commit their money to proven products and standards, no matter how compelling the new developments might seem from a technology standpoint.

In 2013, VDC will work with both suppliers and their customers to determine which new products and standards are gaining traction and which, if any, product types or standards are losing share. It should be a very interesting year.

Will Cloud Based Virtualization Solve Sony’s PS3 - PS4 Platform Migration?

This week, Sony announced some details for the next generation of the Playstation 3 (PS 3) game system. The new product will be called the Playstation 4 (PS 4) which makes sense because once you build a brand, you do not want to create confusion or disruptions with your customer base. From a technical perspective brand continuity is not as easily accomplished while making significant architecture changes between platform models. This is precisely the issue that Sony could have with the PS 4 because of the changes in embedded processing.

The PS 4 will now be using an x86 64-bit 8-core AMD  Jaguar processor as opposed to the Cell architecture used in the PS 3. In addition, a next generation AMD Radeon GPU will provide 1.84 Teraflops of graphics processing.  This embedded processor shift is attractive for game providers because there is likely to be more x86 programming expertise available than was the case with Cell, and the relative familiarity of the processing and graphics capability should allow more projects to be feasible.

If there is a negative note it is that the change in embedded processing architecture will result in the PS 4 not being directly backward compatible with PS 3 games. In other words, the PS 4 will not be able to locally run the PS 3 game disks. If allowed, the lack of compatibility could add a level of complexity to existing PS 3 owner consumer decisions including:

• Do I have enough physical space and unused TV connection ports for both a PS3 and a PS4?
• If so, will my all-in-one remote be able to operate both of them without a problem?
• If all of my PS 3 games will be obsolete, should I wait to see what the new version of the Microsoft XBOX 360 is like before I migrate to next generation gaming?
• At what point will there be enough new PS 4 games for me to consider abandoning all my favorite PS 3 games?

It is here that Sony’s July, 2012 acquisition of cloud-based virtual gaming supplier Gaikai makes sense because it can be leveraged by Sony to mitigate the backward compatibility issue between PS 3 and PS 4.  The user places a PS 3 game disk in the PS 4. The PS 4 identifies the disk as being legitimate, and acts as an interface between the game player’s activities, the local graphics display and the cloud based processing resources. This cloud based architecture, if it performs well, should mitigate the PS 3 to PS 4 migration problem, but we believe that questions still remain. For example, the business model for revenues for those cloud resources and who actually provide and pays them will be interesting questions.

Lastly, it appears from the PS 4 hardware description that the AMD CPU and GPU selected by Sony will be purchased as separate components. There are significant product design and performance advantages to combining these functions into a single semiconductor die or package. In fact, this was a key product strategy when AMD acquired graphics expert ATI in 2006. For Sony, having a separate GPU may allow a more efficient architecture for the cloud-based PS 3 compatibility and other services.

Have Embedded Computing Systems Found a Home in Consumers’ Homes?

This is not to say that embedded computing products are not already found in the typical home. To be quite clear, embedded microcontrollers are used in almost every new appliance that has any type of display, or has features beyond the lowest cost bare-bones models. Embedded computing modules and integrated systems, however, are generally not found in the home, as they are much more expensive than functionally-comparable consumer products. Furthermore, embedded computing products are usually designed with ruggedized, but aesthetically plain, enclosures. Lastly, embedded computers usually have the minimum hardware required for a given application and offer few, if any, extra bells or whistles like CD-ROM or Blu-Ray burners. For these reasons, one might assume that there was not much chance of embedded computing platforms gaining traction in the consumer market. That is, until now.

As we visited AMD’s booth at last year’s Design/West Embedded System Conference, we noticed that a company called Xi3 was showing a modular computer that utilized AMD processors, called their “5 Series”. Xi3 was demonstrating how these small, but reasonably powerful, modules could be deployed in an array for supercomputing applications, as a ‘data center on a wheels’. Although our impression at the time was that these Xi3 units might not be rugged enough for some military applications, the compact case size and attractive form factor made some of us want to adopt one. As it turns out, we were not alone.

There is buzz from the recent Consumer Electronics Show (CES) that gaming company Valve is taking a financial interest in Xi3, and is considering their modular computers for home use with its products. The Xi3 unit called “Piston” has higher processor power, and is more graphically capable than versions of the Series 5 Xi3 products that we saw in early 2012. With a base model starting at ~$500 and a 240GB SSD version at ~$900, these Xi3 units are priced much higher than similar capacity Xbox360 or Playstation 3 gaming products. On the other hand, though, people used to pay two to three times these prices for the desktop cube computer that Apple rolled out in 2001. These Xi3 products that were originally developed for the embedded market are likely to be a lot more reliable, while still having a sexy design that high end consumers will value.

With server and PC suppliers in many cases looking to expand away from traditional enterprise IT, consumer and SOHO markets by targeting embedded applications, Xi3 shows us that the tables can be turned. It is certainly possible that additional embedded computer suppliers will take some of their powerful and compact platforms and upscale them for the luxury consumer market. This trend could get very interesting.

Is Huawei’s New Device the M2M Equivalent of 3M’s Post-it Note?

We just saw a review about Huawei’s new Ascend Mate SmartPhone that features a 6.1” touchscreen, and it was far from positive. In summary, CNN Money’s Adrian Covert found the Huawei product’s market placement to be in the less than ideal “Phablet” zone between phone and tablet. We agree with Adrian in one area, it is probably not an ideal size for a phone. But, at the same time, we believe this class of mobile product can possibly experience the same type of success as 3M’s well known Post-It product.

Here’s a quick summary in case you did not know the 3M Post-It story. A chemist at 3M was trying to create a super strong adhesive but the formula failed for that application. It was only much later that the permanently tacky but not so strong adhesive eventually found a consumer and business market where it excelled. This is not to say that the Huawei product is, pardon the pun, tacky. In our opinion, the Huawei’s 6.1” product would be an excellent “Bring Your Own Device” M2M platform. It is just at the right balance where it easy to transport but also where the larger display can function as a Human Machine Interface (HMI) display. Furthermore, the larger form factor allows for a bigger battery and longer time between charges. Here is how that might work in a few m2M applications:

Industrial: Many industrial machines have to be adjusted for operator ergonomics and preferences. At the same time, due to multiple work shifts and operational flexibility, machines don’t always have the same operators. The operator arrives at the machine and places the mobile device in the docking cradle. The device provides a customized HMI and the operators preferred machine settings are transferred to the machine. The operator logs on and that act, coupled with the possession of the registered device, serves as two-factor authentication. Many operational processes can be enabled and enhanced by this type of M2M method.

Transportation/Automotive: In transportation market for M2M, infotainment and telematic are two classes of applications that would be a good fit for the Ascend Mate’s type of function and form factor. If it were docked on the driver’s panel, it could transfer driver preferences where it could optimize vehicle settings. Unsafe activities like texting while driving or game playing would be locked out. The lock-out feature would also make insurance companies very happy. This brings us to the telematic applications where insurance will play a big part in M2M adoption. Drivers can get insurance breaks if they continually exhibit safe driving habits. Since products like the Ascend Mate are intended to be a phone, they contain the necessary cellular connectivity for verifying safe driving. Since these devices would be docked to the vehicle instead of embedded in the console, they could move with the driver from vehicle to vehicle. That would work particularly well for drivers that frequently use rental and/or have shared vehicles. By providing driver and passenger mobile device docks as opposed to full infotainment displays/systems, auto manufacturers could save themselves and customers money. The passenger docks would, of course, allow full texting and gaming functionality.

A few final thoughts:

• Like many M2M solutions, universal standards have to be set or these types of HMI applications and products will never be transferable across and within markets.
• Huawei reports that the Ascend Mate touchscreen works well when users are wearing gloves. This is a good attribute to have in many M2M markets. 
• As stated in the latest VDC Views report on M2M, in many applications such as those found in industrial settings, it is generally preferable to use embedded components designed for those markets as opposed those targeted for consumer products.

Moore’s Law – Where Do We Go From Here? (Part 2)

A few days ago, I posed the above question in a blog on these pages – and answered it, at least to a degree, by talking about single-atom transistors.  Although one (count it – one) has actually been made, the technology is a long way from being ubiquitous.

However, like global warming and climate change, the single-atom “wall” is real. And we are rapidly approaching it. Use of GPUs for general-purpose computing is a hedge against the wall; these have far more transistors than conventional CPUs and facilitate parallel computing. Intel, NVIDIA and AMD are all pursuing this approach to supercomputing. But this isn’t a long-term solution; GPUs are faced with the same wall.

Intel is pushing toward the Moore’s law limit through cooperative efforts with several outside firms. Intel has invested a staggering US$ 4.1 billion in ASML, a Dutch semiconductor equipment manufacturer. The investment will ultimately yield Intel a 15% share of ASML, and provides US$ 3.3 billion for R&D to make “extreme ultra-violet lithography” or EUVL (using super-short wavelengths of UV light for the etching process) practical, and to develop 450-mm wafers (as opposed to today’s 300-mm wafers). The former will enable 10-nm processes, while the latter will reduce manufacturing costs. And Intel isn’t the only one; Samsung has followed suit with an investment in ASML, and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Ltd. (TSMC) has also made a significant investment. TSMC purports to be the world’s largest independent semiconductor factory, and, although they are currently building three 300-mm wafer fabs, their current production is limited to 200-mm.

Increasing transistor density by shrinking their size is only one way of battling the approaching wall. TSMC and one of its rivals, GlobalFoundries (GloFo), as well as Intel and the rest of the usual suspects, are actively pursuing 3-D chip technology. 3-D chips have been made; Intel’s Ivy Bridge architecture utilizes 3-D technology. 3-D transistors, called FinFETs, promise to both increase speed and reduce power consumption.

3-D ICs

3-D integrated circuits, which will allow far greater transistor density in a given planar footprint, are on their way. However, fabrication of these is not a trivial matter. Early versions comprised stacking dice atop one another with an insulating layer between, and interconnecting the dies using a rather laborious process. This was called “Chip Stack MCM,” and didn’t produce a “real” 3-D chip. But, by 2008, 3-D IC technology had progressed to the point that four types had been defined, as follows:

(1)          Monolithic, wherein components and their interconnections were built in layers on a single wafer which was then diced into 3-D chips. This technology has been the subject of a DARPA grant, with research conducted at Stanford University.

(2)          Wafer-on-Wafer, wherein components are built on separate wafers, which are then aligned, bonded and diced into 3-D ICs. Vertical connections comprise “through-silicon vias” (TSVs) which may either be built into the wafers before bonding or created in the stack after bonding. This process is fraught with technical difficulties, not the least of which is relatively low yield.

(3)          Die-on-Wafer, where components are built on two wafers. One is then diced, with the individual dice aligned and bonded onto sites on the second wafer. TSV creation may be done either before or after bonding. Additional layers may be added before the final dicing.

(4)          Die-on-Die, where components are built on multiple dice which are then aligned and bonded. TSVs may be created either before or after bonding.

There are obvious technical difficulties and pitfalls, no matter which approach is used. These include yield factors (a single defective dice may make an entire stack useless; thermal concerns (caused by the density of components; difficulty of automating manufacture; and a lack of standards.

In my layman’s opinion, a new approach to 3-D technology may be needed before it becomes truly viable. Currently components are built on wafers through the selective removal of material. Construction of 3-D chips could be simplified through selective deposition of material rather than its removal. However, that’s beyond today’s state-of-the-art.

As we look at biological equivalents, though, it’s very clear that brains are 3-D structures. I doubt that true artificial intelligence can be realized in a relatively small package without the development of true 3-D chips. Moore’s law will ultimately stymie continued development of planar chip technology.

Stay tuned for part 3 – there’s a really interesting development out there!

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