VDC Research: RFID, Barcode, Retail Automation & Self-Service Market Blog

NCR Continues to Diversify with Acquisition of Retalix

NCR formally announced this past Wednesday an agreement to acquire Retalix, an Israeli vendor of retail, marketing, supply chain and logistics software solutions. The transaction is valued at $30 per share, or approximately $650 million and is expected to close sometime during Q1 2013. NCR intends to finance the acquisition via a combination of cash and an existing debt facility. Via the acquisition of Retalix, NCR strengthens its competitive position in several respects:

• Expanding its retail automation and customer engagement hardware offerings to include a more diversified range of software solutions, both for customer- and employee-facing applications
• Broadening its services portfolio to include additional professional/integration and managed services options
• Solidifying its status as a go-to vendor for end-to-end solutions that meet the specific, unique requirements of retail end users

We view the Retalix acquisition as a well-advised strategic move that furthers NCR’s diversification into the enterprise software market. While it has historically been known for high-end customer engagement and retail automation hardware (in addition to kiosks, ATMs, etc.), during the past 18 months, NCR has made a concerted effort to broaden its software portfolios—especially those geared towards retail and hospitality end users—via strategic acquisition and organic development.

For example, in August 2011, NCR acquired Radiant Systems, a specialized provider of hospitality POS software and solutions, for approximately $1.2 billion. The addition of Radiant materially strengthened NCR’s competitive position within hospitality, where the company had historically been weak relative to its status as a retail leader. In retail, the company recently launched its NCR Silver product—which enables merchants to integrate POS-enabled iPads, iPhones and iPod touches with stationary POS terminals—to address the rapidly growing demand for consumer-grade mobile device use in the enterprise. While Silver is geared towards SMBs, we expect the Retalix solutions that will soon be part of the NCR portfolio will appeal to a broader range of retailers, including Tier 1 leaders like Home Depot and Walmart, where the company has a well-established installed base.

Furthermore, we believe NCR’s efforts to diversify its software and service capabilities are indicative of a broader interest among end users (merchants and hospitality operators especially) to leverage technology platforms for a set of applications well beyond those with which they are traditionally associated. In the context of POS systems, for example, requirements now often include applications besides typical sales and payment functions. In hospitality, operators also need to accept/administer loyalty programs, manage digital menu boards, accept mobile payments/coupons and potentially support a range of back-of-house functions as well. Retail has similarly diverse requirements—and the acquisition of Retalix will enable NCR to meet these needs more consistently across a broader range of merchants. 

The growing importance of specialized merchant/hospitality solutions is a topic we will explore further our upcoming MCET research—contact us for details.

To NFC, or Not NFC? That Was My Personal Smartphone Question...

I admit it—I’m an Apple user. Call me whatever you want…fanboy, sheep, mindless minion worshipping at the altar of the Great Jobs. It doesn't bother me. In my experience, Apple stuff—while pricey—lasts longer, is generally easier to use for those of us who are not (and have aspirations of being) computer programmers and is usually (but not always) very well-designed and supported from UI, UX and aesthetic perspectives. Case in point: my recently deceased (cause of death: buggy “home” button) iPhone 3Gs provided nearly 4 years of trouble-free service despite the general abuse I heaped upon it.

Contrary to what one might assume, despite being a technology analyst, I do not eat, breathe and sleep tech. Certainly I appreciate technology for the conveniences and other benefits it provides me, but generally view any device as if it were an appliance. Sure, I get excited whenever it is time to look at a new laptop, smartphone or what have you—but after the initial novelty wears off, I just want the thing to function as intended—with minimal hassle and no headaches. I’m not the guy camping out in the mall for the latest i-device. I AM the guy who waited 7 years between getting a new laptop.

That being said, I have a soft spot in my heart reserved for NFC—both because I think it is a (potentially) useful technology and because I spend a significant amount of my work focuses on the market. With my iPhone having been on its last legs for the better part of this year, I (like many others) wanted a new iPhone with NFC. But, as we all know, the iPhone 5 is not NFC enabled. Thus, I had a decision to make with my new phone: stay loyal to Apple/iOS, or jump ship to Android or Windows and get a phone with NFC.

I thought long and hard about going the non-iOS/NFC route. I read many online reviews of leading Android and Windows smartphones. I tested the devices in-person at the store. I imagined what I might use NFC for in my day-to-day life—now, probably not much, but perhaps in the future, paying for lunch or a coffee with a tap of my phone. As someone who dislikes cash, contactless payment is an appealing concept.

Conversely, I envisioned the potential downsides of straying from iOS—mainly, hassles with syncing to my home computer (yes, it’s an Apple) and learning a new  mobile operating system. While both of these are relatively minor issues, I was left with wondering, why bother? What benefits does NFC offer that justify these (and other) compromises? I could not find a compelling answer to that question—and so I went with another iPhone.

Certainly, my personal technology usage, preferences and views may be unique. But, strictly in the context of NFC, I believe they are generally applicable to most consumers—and indicative of the NFC ecosystem’s shortcomings. Other than the increase in NFC smartphone availability seen in 2012, what material progress has the ecosystem made recently? Very little.

At present, in most regions, NFC cannot be used for the headline applications—payment and ticketing, for example—for which it is billed. Right now, most consumers using NFC are confined to simple, basic applications like P2P sharing and pairing.  For me—and I suspect many other consumers—these features are “nice-to-haves,” not “must-haves” when shopping for a new smartphone. Perhaps in the future, the NFC ecosystem will progress to the point where contactless payment and ticketing are broadly-accessible to the average consumer. But, until that time, it’s hard to envision NFC having a material impact on consumers’ device preferences—particularly those that are hooked on iOS.

Google Wallet to Go “Back to the Future” to Drive NFC Adoption?

It is no big secret that Google Wallet has been challenged to gain adoption since it officially launched in September 2011. While the app faced a number of headwinds in its very early days, the initial version of Google Wallet was especially hamstrung by the very limited number of payment card types and smartphones that supported the app. Since its introduction, these problems have generally been addressed, as the app is now available on a broader range of devices and has implemented a new hybrid architecture that leverages cloud-based technology to enable almost any common credit/debit card to be used with Google Wallet.

Still, despite these improvements to accessibility and usability, Google Wallet has yet to gain traction with consumers and has left its management looking for other strategies to drive adoption. If recent rumors prove true, Google plans to introduce a decidedly low-tech expansion—in the form of a traditional plastic payment card—to its solution sometime soon.

Essentially, the Google Wallet card—as it is rumored—will enable consumers to load all the cards in their wallet onto an online portal and link them to the Google Wallet card, thereby offering the potential to slim down the brick-like stacks of cards many of us carry in our pockets and purses. The Google Wallet app (in conjunction with the online portal) would provide consumers the ability to manage which credit/debit card they want to pay with when using the Google card and continue to offer contactless payment for devices and merchants that support it. Rumors indicate that the card will only be available to Android users if/when it launches. Perhaps it will eventually be offered to iOS users too, but given the state of affairs between Google and Apple, we are not betting on it.

From a strategic perspective, we think adding a card extension to Google Wallet is well-advised, as it opens the app to a broader audience of potential users—including the majority of the US population that does not own an NFC-enabled phone. Furthermore, a Google Wallet card is a palatable intermediary step that could allow Google to ease mobile-payment-weary consumers into migrating from traditional card-based payment to mobile contactless payment.

From a consumer’s standpoint, consolidating multiple credit/debit cards into a single one is certainly an agreeable concept to those of us—myself included—that carry overloaded wallets. However, it is difficult to envision many consumers taking the initiative to obtain, configure and use a Google Wallet card/app solution for this benefit alone. To justify consumers’ investment of time and effort, there needs to be some kind of compelling, undeniably attractive incentive to reward them—something along the lines of cash-back rewards, discounts or some other feature that will capture consumers’ attention and keep them coming back for more. Otherwise, we see this rumored Google Wallet addition being another payment innovation flop.

VDC Heads to the Big Apple for CET World 2012

The VDC AutoID team was in the Big Apple on Wednesday for the 2012 edition of Customer Engagement Technology World (CETW). Despite the recent hardships caused by Hurricane Sandy last week, this year’s show went on as scheduled and drew the usual, diverse crowd of vendors and end-users that attend CETW. Although the show floor was somewhat dominated by vendors of kiosk and digital signage hardware, software and solutions, other areas of the CET spectrum—including POS/mPOS terminals, consumer-facing mobile apps and customer analytics—were also well represented. Our observations at CETW 2012 left us with a several takeaways:

• Self-service solutions are alive and well. As we discussed in a recent post, during the past 12-18 months we have observed a certain level of anti-self-service sentiment among some end-user verticals, including restaurants/dining and retail. While there are definitely examples of enterprises that are moving away from self-service solutions, including self-checkout, kiosks and some forms of interactive displays, these particular instances are not indicative of any mass migration away from these technologies. In fact, these self-service solutions continue to evolve and progress in regards to their functionality and ease-of-deployment. Companies such as NCR are developing more capable and more easily-integrated self-service technologies, such as their NetKey offering.
• Merchant/retailer interest in mobility solutions continues to build. The concept of mobility—whether in the context of m.POS, m.payment or any other enterprise application—continues to build momentum. In regards to m.POS and m.payment especially, it seems these concepts have become so trendy as of late that some end-users are evaluating investment in them simply due to the buzz surrounding them. Several mobility vendors we spoke with at the event noted they are hearing from an increasing number of merchants who want to invest in m.POS/m.payment solutions—but have not defined the objectives for their deployment of the same. While these cases may be more of an indictment of the technology strategy—or lack thereof—at the merchants in question, we also see it as a strong indicator that retailers have generally acknowledged the value mobility provides in many applications.
• Personalized communications/offers that cater to individual preferences are a good start, but there is still a long way to go. For example, to engage a customer and maintain his/her loyalty it is equally important—if not more so—to avoid suggesting things that a customer may dislike or find offensive. Similarly, context and timeliness of communications are also important dimensions to consider—as events such as birthdays, anniversaries, or (to cite a timely example) storms and other natural events may have important implications for what a consumer wants—or does not want—to hear from a merchant. Clearly, tailoring communications to this level of precision is far more complex and challenging than simply making add-on sale suggestions or deal offers based on past purchase history—but with the increasingly advanced capabilities of analytics and other data-management tools, it is not an impossible task. 

For VDC, CETW 2012 was an informative, interesting and timely event, particularly as we prepare to launch its new MCET research program in the upcoming months. Contact us for more information about that research, in which we will discuss the above trends and many others impacting merchants and the technology providers that serve them.

Think Self-Checkout is Dead? Think Again.

During the past 18 months or so, we have observed a decidedly negative attitude towards the future viability of Self-Checkout (SCO) solutions in US retailers. Throughout 2011 and 2012, a number of large grocery chains—including Kroger and Albertsons—announced SCO lanes will be replaced with old-fashioned staffed lanes instead. The retail technology blogosphere has also joined the anti-automation bandwagon, with articles frequently bemoaning the clunky operation of early solutions and their perceived job-killing effect. Despite this anti-SCO sentiment, many store chains across all retail sub-verticals continue to offer SCO as a checkout option. In fact, some merchants are actually increasing SCO investment. This week, NCR announced it will deliver 10,000 additional SCO stations across WalMart’s 1200 US stores during 2013. Financial terms of the deal were not disclosed, but, based on VDC’s most recent AFSP data, we estimate the value of this contract to be approximately $150-160 million.

Notwithstanding its abandonment by certain retailers, SCO remains a useful technology when deployed in appropriate retail settings. Like any other solution, it has certain vertical/sub-vertical applications to which it’s well-suited, and others it’s not. While certain early SCO systems were buggy and difficult to use (we have experienced them ourselves), modern offerings have largely addressed these shortcomings, offer time-strapped shoppers an attractive alternative to waiting in line and often complement other retail solutions such as Personal Shopping Systems. VDC therefore believes SCO will remain an important component of many retailers’ broader front-end technology solutions, particularly in grocery/supermarket, mass merchants, wholesale clubs and home improvement stores.

In regards to WalMart’s upcoming SCO rollout, we expect its investment decision was motivated in part by the retailer’s ongoing experimentation with customer-operated mobile shopping apps. Specifically, WalMart is one of the founding members of the Merchant Customer Exchange (a consortium of more than 20 US merchants working cooperatively to develop an interoperable, cross-brand mobile wallet) and also recently announced small-scale pilots of a smartphone-based self-scanning app. As these two initiatives progress—and if/when they move towards full-scale deployment—we expect self-service technology like SCO will play a key role in their day-to-day use by customers. Convenience and time savings are two of the key value propositions these mobile apps offer, and both are strengthened by the presence of SCO as a checkout option. Accordingly, we expect to see SCO defend its established place within the retail automation spectrum, especially among technology-embracing merchants like WalMart . Furthermore, by virtue of its recognition as a retail sector leader, WalMart could give its SCO-doubting peers reason to reevaluate their own automation strategies.

RFID Could be the Prescription for Better Safety in Pharmaceutical Manufacturing

VDC believes recent, high-profile cases of tainted pharmaceuticals in the US potentially could drive RFID adoption within the US pharmaceutical industry. For example, consider the fungal meningitis outbreak that has emerged during the past several weeks and, to date, caused 25 deaths. Ultimately, the meningitis cases were linked to steroids manufactured by a Massachusetts-based company. As a result of the national scale and severe consequences of this incident, the US pharmaceutical industry is under intense public and regulatory scrutiny—and we think new, more stringent legislation for pharma could be the result. Specifically, VDC expects new FDA regulations governing the manufacture and tracing of drugs—from the manufacturer to the end consumer—could be one of the near-term outcomes of this outbreak. Such legislation could include mandated use of RFID or other solutions to provide better visibility into—and control of—the pharmaceutical supply chain.

Should the FDA require RFID use in pharmaceutical manufacturing, it would not be an unprecedented legislative development. In fact, the South Korean government has implemented regulations mandating RFID use by its domestic manufacturers to reduce drug counterfeiting and its various negative collateral effects (e.g., loss of revenues, reduced drug efficacy, risk to consumers, etc.). RFID tagging of drugs at the point of manufacture has a number of potential benefits, depending on the applications for which the technology is used. The following objectives are common RFID adoption drivers among pharmaceutical manufacturers:

• Ensuring drug authenticity
• Providing better visibility into the supply chain and chain-of-custody of controlled substances
• Improve patient safety by expediting recalls and eliminating counterfeit drugs

Considering the enormous size of the US pharma market (approximately $260 billion in 2011 revenues), increased adoption of RFID within this manufacturing sub-vertical would have material growth implications for the broader RFID market—especially if use of specific RFID solution types (e.g., track-and-trace, authentication) is mandated by future FDA legislation.

Regardless, bearing in mind the potentially dire consequences of tainted, counterfeited, or otherwise compromised drugs—both in terms of injury/death to consumers and the resulting liability claims, just to name two—VDC believes all pharmaceutical manufacturers are well-advised to evaluate all technology solutions (including RFID) that could improve patient safety and control of their supply chains, whether government mandated or not.