VDC Research: RFID, Barcode, Retail Automation & Self-Service Market Blog

VDC's AutoID & Data Capture Practice's Summer Intern Gets Enamored by RFID

As my academic year was coming to close at Boston College this spring, I began to look for a summer internship focused on technology market research and consulting. After noticing a posting by VDC Research that had these keywords, I eagerly applied.  Eager to impress in my interview with the VP of AutoID & Data Capture, I ventured towards Wikipedia to help me understand what AIDC meant and what I was getting myself into. I was instantly overwhelmed by all the acronyms appearing on the page: I thought, what are RFID, RTLS, NFC, 2D, etc.?  So, I read and prepared for the interview. I secured the internship and was eager to start.

I headed into my first day thinking about all of the technologies to which I would be exposed. After all, AutoID & Data Capture encompasses many disparate technologies.  I received a crash course in AutoID from the practice’s VP. But, after the first day, I was immediately intrigued by RFID. I went home to my roommates that night and explained to them how their EZ-Passes and Charlie Cards worked. I felt enlightened understanding this technology and the applications it enables – many of which I’ve taken for granted for so long in my day-to-day life.

Having worked for VDC for nearly a month now, I’m enamored by the world of RFID. The numerous, often innovative applications of RFID, ranging from enabling automatic filming of action sports, to enabling self-serve beer and wine taps, and even the creation of “Real World Mario Kart”, make RFID technology compelling. Now I find myself going on Facebook just so that I can post cool articles about RFID on my friends’ walls. A multitude of exciting uses, combined with the cost saving benefits and value propositions RFID offers to many industries, will keep me intrigued by RFID for some time.   

(This blog post was written by Nicholas Reposa. He is currently a Researcher in VDC’s AutoID & Data Capture practice.)

Embedded Sensing & M2M Enable Advanced Efficient Agriculture with RFID

The VDC team received a very interesting briefing from RFMicron (Austin, Texas) on an IC component aimed at solving a problem seen with passive RFID tags. In addition to increasing the performance of the RFID tag, the new chip (called Magnus) actually allows the tag to perform additional functions and, as a result, we believe that this product has many potential M2M applications.

Here is a bit of background. Passive RFID tags do not contain any power source of their own. When stimulated by the correct RF signal, they chirp back data that is stored on or measured by the tag at that moment. Because a passive RFID tag is essentially using the received energy to transmit the return signal the tuning between the tag electronics and antenna have to be near perfect. One thing that can interfere with a passive RFID tag’s performance is moisture. The new Magnus chip enables the passive RFID tag to adjust for moisture to maintain optimal operation. That, by itself, is significant because it allows objects that are in sub-optimal conditions (e.g. wet) to be monitored wirelessly at greater distances. As a result M2M applications could be deployed over extremely long periods of time without needing any power source on the individual assets. What made this new component really interesting is that moisture data from the component could be transmitted by the tag along with the stored ID number. In our opinion, passive RFID tags with this component could be a key piece in an M2M optimized agricultural operation. Here is how it would work:

VDC’s View of M2M Enabled Agriculture using Passive RFID Moisture Detection

1.)    During planting process, the farm equipment inserts the RFID tags at given intervals along with the seeds. The embedded computer on the farm equipment logs and transmits the tag’s ID number and GPS location data to the cloud.

2.)    As farm equipment pass over the fields, the RFID reader scans the sensors and the embedded computer collects the data. This allows for the creation of a economical irrigation plan. VDC pictures this as being similar to ink-jet printers in precision as opposed to pumping water and spraying for fixed intervals.

3.)    Data from the moisture sensors can be retained in the cloud to confirm that optimal irrigation was maintained.

4.)    At harvest time, data on crop yields and quality are collected and sent to the cloud.

5.)    The cloud stored data can be used for many purposes that benefit several agricultural stakeholders including:

• The farmer can optimize future crops from the lessons learned from the current one.
• The aggregated data on crop yields can be sold to the investment community for analysis and pricing of agriculture-based financial instruments.
• In the event of a crop failure, the insurance industry can verify that the farmer had followed reasonable practices before making the payout.

6.)    At the end of the process, the farmer tills over the field without having to worry about recovering sensors or their connectivity infrastructure.

What happens to the RFID tags after that?  We have to assume that most of the tags would survive for several years but they would no longer have precise location or soil depth. Although, it is possible that the tags could be recovered for future use, the cost of doing so would likely exceed their cost of approximately $1 per unit. In future growing seasons, any data received from RFID tags deployed with earlier crops would be ignored.

The connected-farm is only one of many possible M2M applications for passive RFID sensor tags. For example, the moisture detecting RFID tags could be installed inside tanks at regular intervals to detect liquid levels.  Other physical properties such as pressure or temperature could be included to increase functionality. The M2M possibilities are endless.

The AutoID & Data Capture team would like to thank David Laing from VDC's Embedded Hardware team for authoring this blog post.

A Logical RFID Application That Still Carries Some Heavy "Baggage"

Baggage handling is one of those “no-brainer” applications for passive UHF RFID technology. The use
case just makes sense.  Yet, after more than decade, this application market still struggles with historical issues. Although the benefits of the technology are clear, there have only been a small number of deployments worldwide. As adoption is most challenged by cost concerns, implementation challenge considerations and long-standing disagreements over who should pay for the system (airlines or airports).

Airline passengers are some of the most dissatisfied consumers in the world, especially in the United States.  And, the situation is only becoming worse as airlines cut staff, eliminate routes, add fees, and raise ticket prices to compensate for excessive fuel costs and other economic pressures.  The result has been massively lower customer satisfaction ratings. 

One major sore spot for air travellers continues to be lost baggage. And, now the baggage problem
is being compounded as extra fees are being charged for additional checked
bags.  If the airline misplaces or loses a bag that received a surcharge, imagine how upset a passenger would become after paying for checking in that bag. The airline may lose more than the bag – it will likely lose that customer.

• Lost baggage and handling issues are the focus - The impetus for many projects
  is the need reduce the time to transfer luggage. According to sources at the
  Lisbon Airport, the passive UHF RFID-based baggage handling system (BHS) has
  reduced the time to handle a baggage transfer by 66%. Other advantages include
  increased customer satisfaction and reduced labor (time to search for bags).
• McCarran International Airport (Las Vegas, US) expanded its program in 2012 - The
  new Terminal 3 has 130 self-check-in kiosks at which passengers can print their
  own passive UHF RFID-enabled baggage tags. This is innovative as printing has
  primarily been done behind the counter. More airports are expected to come
  online within 2-3 years; however, baggage handling system ownership (airports
  vs. airlines) and tagging costs remain major adoption barriers.
• Other considerations:

            -       More airports are expected to come online within 2-3 years; however, baggage handling                     system ownership (airports vs. airlines) and tagging costs remain major adoption                     barriers.

            -       Travelers are paying more than ever for checked baggage; however, lost baggage rates                     remain high and lead to customer frustration.  RFID technology can solve this industry                     challenge and make customers feel they are charged for a premium service as opposed                     to a bag fee.

            -       Delivered inlays and tags must be Gen2 compliant to ensure interoperability and IATA-                    approved.

            -       Only when more airlines and airports adopt passive UHF solutions will the commercial                     airline industry realize the full benefits of RFID.

While adoption has been limited to date, successful installations have occurred throughout the world. Some of the more prominent deployments include Schiphol Airport in Amsterdam, McCarran Airport in Las Vegas, Milan’s Malpensa Airport, Hong Kong International Airport, Portugal-Lisbon Airport and Aalborg Airport in Denmark.

While it may take some time, VDC Research does expect more airports and airlines to strongly consider RFID baggage handling systems and begin pilots and deployments. Like with most things RFID, time and actions will tell.  

What makes a smart city smart? It must be AutoID.

What makes a smart city smart?  That is a key question as our team researches smart cities and how AutoID technologies are enabling them. Although the term smart city means different things to different people and is used inconsistently to define various projects, I believe RFID, RTLS, contactless and NFC are critical elements of the smart city of tomorrow. The formal definition of a smart city generally includes variations of the following elements: a smart economy; smart mobility; smart environment; smart living; smart governance and smart technology. Enter RFID, RTLS, contactless and NFC technologies. In small towns and major cities throughout the world, these AutoID solutions are already being used to support a host of applications, including:

• Internet of Things
• Bike rentals
• Citizen ID
• Customer loyalty
• Electronic Vehicle Registration (EVR)
• Energy (e.g., smart meters)
• Library management
• Public transport (e.g., contactless ticketing, mobile payment)
• Risk prevention (e.g., public works, nuclear energy)
• Urban planning (e.g., smart building, intelligent traffic)
• Vehicle fleet
• Waste management

The concept of the smart city is increasingly being adopted by both cities (municipalities/localities) and enterprises,reflecting the growing importance of information and communication technologies
(in addition to social and environmental factors) in defining the competitiveness of cities and improving the quality of life of individual citizens through the management of natural resources and responsible participatory governments.

Not surprisingly, smart cities are notbuilt in day. They take time, money, awareness and most often government involvement (e.g., funding, mandates, recommendations, program development) to
build the foundation and then scale. As a result, municipalities/localities must think big (a vision for a smart city) but start small (one project/deployment/application at a time). Albeit slowly, smart cities are emerging with RFID, NFC, RTLS, and contactless payment, ticketing and ID technologies often part of the “construction.” According to one local official with whom I recently spoke under NDA, “The value propositions and benefits of RFID [and increasingly NFC] will be found around every corner – literally – and the application possibilities are limitless.”

Major RFID and contactless industry conferences are also recognizing the importance of RFID, NFC and related technologies to the development of a smart city. For example, in October, The 4^th Annual International RFID Congress event will be dedicated to applications RFID/NFC for a smart city and habitat. 

Smart cities will leverage many technologies, but most of them can be grouped into
five main categories:

• Authentication (RFID, NFC, mobile payment, etc.)
• Cloud Computing (remote back-up, wireless communication, etc.)
• Control (monitored data analyzed in real time to drive actions, alerts, controls)
• Monitoring (sensors, RTLS, RFID, etc.)
• Sensing (RFID, wireless sensor networks, video, biometrics, etc.)

As part of our 2013 research programs, the AutoID & Data Capture team will study the use of RFID, NFC and related technologies by municipalities/localities and determine how these solutions fit into the concept and vision of a smart city. Stay tuned for more on this topic and the impact of AutoID in creating these cities of the future.

NRF 2013: The Big Show Day 1 Recap

The VDC AutoID team attended this year’s NRF in full force. With vendors representing all of the core AutoID markets, including MCET, RFID and Barcode, there were many new and innovative retail-targeted products to see relevant to each of the practice’s coverage areas. The following are a few broader observations from day 1 in the Big Apple:

• Hardware is becoming increasingly less important, and more vendors realize it. Conversely, software, and, more importantly, the functionality it enables, is the critical issue for retailers. Some hardware and solution vendors have been aware of this dynamic for some time now. Others, we think, have only recently awakened to this reality. This is more often (but not always) true in the case of large-scale, enterprise-focused vendors of retail automation and customer engagement solutions that have historically pursued differentiation via hardware ruggedness, lifecycle, and so forth rather than ease-of-use, intuitive functionality and application innovation. During conversations throughout the show, it was evident that several large-scale, traditionally hardware-focused vendors have pivoted to a broader focused strategy—one that seeks to differentiate on innovative software and functionality in addition to hardware.
• Traditional POS terminal refreshes contribute to mPOS growth. The common strategic drivers behind the recent explosion in retailers’ mPOS investment are well documented, and include improved labor utilization and efficiency, better customer service and employee empowerment. However, during our time at NRF 2013, we validated another, more pragmatic factor playing a role in mPOS’ rapid growth: stationary POS terminal refreshes. As merchants update traditional POS systems, vendors indicated that mobile terminals are usually included in their next-generation solution evaluation process. The stationary vs. mobile conversation is different for every retailer, and depends on variables including store format, sub-vertical and strategic/operational objectives, but increasingly the final solution is comprised at least in part by mPOS. While we expect this trend to continue throughout 2013 and well into the future, at the same time we believe stationary POS will remain relevant for many types of retailers as well. 
• The m.Wallet war rages on with no end in sight: The struggle to establish broader adoption in the m.Wallet and contactless payment ecosystem is as highly contested as ever, both in the context of which stakeholder(s) own the m.Wallet (a single retailer, a multi-retailer consortium, the MNOs, etc.) and in regards to enabling technology (mobile barcode, NFC, cloud-based). At this point in time, there is no certainty as to which of these entities and enabling technologies will be successful in the long term. Valid arguments exist both for and against these prospective m.Wallet owners as well as each enabling technology, and all were represented on the NRF show floor. Ultimately, consumers have the final say as to which stakeholders and enabling technologies win. Without consumers’ approval—i.e., their adoption and ongoing use—no m.Wallet or contactless payment technology will be successful in the long term. 

That concludes our recap from the first day at NRF. Stay tuned to this blog for another post highlighting some of the key vendor announcements and observations from day two.

VDC Research's 13 AutoID Predictions for 2013: Barcode, RFID & RTLS and Mobile Customer Engagement Technologies

Happy New Year! On behalf of the AutoID team and all of VDC Research Group, we wish you all the
best in 2013.

Although 2012 has just concluded, it is never too soon to look ahead. So to start the new year off in an interesting way, the AutoID team has taken out our crystal ball once again to offer 13 predictions for the AutoID market in 2013, including Barcode, RFID & RTLS and Mobile Consumer Engagement Technologies (MCET). They are presented in no particular order.  

1. Barcode: More market aggregation ahead – Expect continued consolidation of the barcode
   hardware landscape, particularly to achieve growth across following dimensions:
   • Regional – Vendors seeking to grow their presence in emerging country markets,
     particularly targeting barcode printer and scanner vendors based out of
     Asia-Pacific.
   • Vertical – Vendors looking to increase their proliferation into high-growth industry
     verticals – particularly healthcare.
2. Barcode: Vendors will learn to “accessorize” – More barcode hardware players will actively
   look to enter the “accessories” market – developing sleds and/or sleeves to support consumer-grade device usage in enterprise environments. This is particularly relevant to vendors addressing customer-facing applications with their devices in retail, healthcare, hospitality and commercial services. 
3. Barcode: Future with mobility, not without in software market – An increasing number
   of barcode software solution providers will extend label printing support to portable devices (both purpose-built and consumer-grade) – facilitating mobile applications such as field sales, field service and direct store delivery (DSD). Today, mobile barcode label generation software penetration is in a very nascent stage, but we expect that to quickly change. Mobility IS the way forward across verticals and industries and the entire barcode value chain must and will respond accordingly.
4. Barcode: Embrace the tech-savvy consumer – Scanning with and displaying barcodes on mobile device screens will continue to grow significantly among consumers. Barcode vendors and their enterprise and retail customers must continuously adapt to this explosive trend. We predict more QSRs (quick service restaurants), convenience stores, restaurants, theme parks/ entertainment venues and other consumer-facing enterprises will invest in and deploy barcode imagers and consumer-grade mobile devices to interact with consumers (e.g., coupon redemption, payment, loyalty/rewards programs).
5. MCET: Mobile point-of-sale (mPOS) will remain the hottest technology among B2C business operators – This trend will be most prominent in retail, but increasingly in dining as well, despite the fact that enterprises often lack clear strategic objectives guiding their investment in the same. In 2013, MCET solution providers must assume leadership roles in educating their customers on technology selection, software and security, best-fit use cases for specific mobile devices/form factors and total cost of ownership (TCO).
6. MCET: NFC as a broader ecosystem will make little progress beyond incremental gains in
   shipments of NFC-enabled smartphones – Yes, this means more NFC-equipped phones in consumer hands, and limited scale pilots and tests will continue, but 2013 is not the year when the technology gains global-level traction. However, expect more TV commercials for mobile phones and mobile network operators (MNOs) to advertise NFC and its applications – and more importantly, look for more commercials to specifically mention the term “NFC” in order to engrain the technology in consumer minds.
7. MCET: Merchants’ general focus on mobility - mPOS in particular - will bring great opportunity for vendors of adjacent peripherals – POS peripheral vendors (e.g., receipt printers, barcode scanners, payment solutions) are expected to drive growth via innovative, highly-portable versions of these traditional POS extensions. These vendors will be jockeying for competitive position more aggressively in 2013, responding to burgeoning demand among retailers, restaurants, hospitality and other enterprises wanting to differentiate and augment their systems by  “going mobile” at the POS.
8. MCET: Contactless mobile payment via NFC will not explode in popularity among consumers during 2013, but consumer usage and merchant support of this application will experience strong growth – Barcodes displayed on mobile device screens and core/traditional RFID (e.g., contactless tickets, smartcards) – not NFC – will continue to enjoy broader global support for mobile payments in the foreseeablefuture. For NFC to gain ground in 2013, more NFC-enabled devices must reach consumer hands, more NFC-compatible payment terminals must be deployed and more collaboration among invested parties must occur within the NFC ecosystem (especially in terms of consumer education, transaction fee negotiations/resolution, and application development).
9. RFID & RTLS: Vendors – especially RTLS solution providers – will develop the “healthcare
   stare” – The use of RFID and RTLS is on the rise in healthcare, most notably in the US thanks to the VA’s announced $540M+ contract to track equipment and supplies at 21 of its Veteran Integrated Service Networks (VISNs).  However, the contract award to HP was not met without controversy in 2012 as IBM filed a protest to the US Government Accountability Office (GAO) and won the decision. The contract will be rebid among, at least, the six original bidders.  This spark to the market (and sizeable contract) drew a lot of attention in 2012 and we expect the RFID and RTLS frenzy to continue in healthcare in 2013. However, we caution vendors (especially RTLS providers) to not focus solely on healthcare and to seek opportunities and market development in other vertical markets where the competitive field may be less crowded.
10. RFID & RTLS: Passive UHF EPC item-level tagging (ILT) in the apparel sector will
    pick up the pace after a somewhat slow 2012 – This past year was a mild disappointment in terms of retailer deployment of RFID for ILT of apparel. For example, no major reader or printer/encoder orders were delivered, several large retailers remain behind originally announced plans (e.g., Wal-Mart, JC Penney) and some newer programs were pushed to or will start in 2013.  So what to expect in the year ahead? Even more American Apparel stores will go live with RFID (a bright spot for 2012 as well), Wal-Mart will reassess its RFID plans but remain committed, Macy’s will make its anticipated move, JC Penney has bigger worries than RFID, international retailer Zara will play a key role in increasing tag volumes and RFID EAS will become a more critical part of the ILT in apparel conversation.
11. RFID & RTLS: Embedded RFID keeps the forward momentum – At the end of 2011 we
    noted the rise of “RFID inside,” or embedded RFID, as a key trend to watch for in 2012.  We are keeping it on the list in 2013 after seeing a great deal of progress in 2012. For example, ThingMagic released a new, smaller passive UHF reader module, Xerafy continued product development for embedded RFID specialty tags (e.g., tools), ICs and chipsets from players such as Impinj, NXP, Murata and AMS decreased their footprints, Coca-Cola Freestyle dispensers with passive UHF technology inside continued deploment, RFID and NFC made their way into consumer devices such as Keurig Vue coffee brewers and Nintendo Wii (Skylanders game) and much more. With price points declining and form factors shrinking, we expect to see solutions and applications such as these expand and new innovations to be introduced in 2013.
12. RFID & RTLS: Honeywell Scanning & Mobility will get strategic on RFID – and quickly
    – after announcing its first RFID product and the acquisition of Intermec in 2012 – After some exploration of RFID while acquiring several barcode scanner and mobile computing companies over the last few years, Honeywell made some eye-catching RFID moves in 2012. They made a subtle move in introducing an RFID reader and then made a major move in announcing the acquisition of Intermec (a major RFID IP holder and RFID equipment manufacturer). We predict Honeywell will aggressively develop its RFID strategy in 2013, becoming a strong competitor in select verticals and applications that play to the combined strengths of Honeywell and Intermec. What’s next for Honeywell – RTLS in 2013 or 2014?
13. AutoID: Governments in China and the EU continue to connect with the concept of the Internet of Things (IoT) – While the US government remains largely silent, China and
    the EU actively fund research IoT projects, create policies to govern the IoT and deploy IoT technologies (including RFID, NFC and sensors). Much of the IoT activity in the US has been at the city level (e.g., smart cities) and we do not expect that to change. In looking ahead and predicting where will be the epicenter of IoT innovation, we are placing our bets on China. Simply look at what is on the list of IoT development subsidy projects from China's Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and Ministry of Finance (announced November 2012). UHF and microwave RFID chip design, product technology R&D, miniaturized intelligent sensor technology R&D, ad-hoc networking technology for wireless sensor networks, intelligent logistics and intelligent traffic are among the 14 categories of project, comprising 149 projects in total, which will receive support from the government.

I would like to extend a special thank you to Richa Gupta (VDC’s barcode analyst) and John Shuster (VDC’s MCET analyst) for their contributions to this blog.

AutoID Market Shakeup - VDC's Thoughts on Honeywell Acquiring Intermec

At VDC, we have now, in a way, come to expect big acquisition-related news towards the end of calendar years – case in point, Datalogic’s acquisition of Accu-Sort and SMARTRAC N.V.’s acquisitions of UPM, KSW and Neology in Q4, 2011. Throughout 2012, VDC has talked about how we expect to see leading players in the space – for both barcode scanners and printers – to consider consolidating their competitive landscape and strengthen their leadership position in existing markets while also tapping into adjacent high-growth market opportunities. On December 10th, 2012, Honeywell International Inc. (NYS: HON) did just that – announcing its acquisition of one of the global leaders of AIDC solutions, Intermec (NYS: IN), for approximately $600 million in an all-cash transaction. Intermec is the only company involved in the development, manufacture, sale and integration of all core AIDC technologies (barcode scanners, barcode printers, RFID, rugged mobile computers, etc.), thereby giving enterprises with AIDC solution requirements a “one stop shop” alternative. Our focus in this blog post will be on highlighting the impact of the company’s acquisition on the barcode and RFID markets.

From a strategic perspective, some of the key benefits that Honeywell can leverage via this acquisition include:

1. Honeywell has registered strong performance in the barcode scanning market since its acquisitions of Metrologic Instruments and Hand Held Products in the last decade. The company, however, has had an extremely limited presence, if at all, in other AIDC markets. It is only in May 2012, for example, that Honeywell’s AIDC division launched its first RFID-enabled device – the Optimus™ 5900 RFID mobile computer – capable of reading EPC Gen2 and ISO 18000-6B RFID tags. With this deal, the company has bought an immediate entry into several adjacent technology markets given Intermec’s relatively strong play in barcode and receipt printers, consumables, RFID printer/encoders, RFID readers, and other hardware. VDC considers Intermec’s strong IP (intellectual property) in the RFID market to have been a crucial decision driver for Honeywell especially as the company looks to capitalize on new, high-growth opportunities in this multi-billion dollar market – most notably in the Manufacturing and T&L verticals.
2. Intermec’s value proposition as a “one stop shop” for AIDC resonates, in particular, with warehouse and manufacturing IT professionals looking to standardize on one branded platform. The company has also been investing resources towards building out its presence in the health care services market – with new product introductions and channel alliances. This acquisition thus gives Honeywell significant leverage in these vertical markets.

Despite all these synergies, VDC expects Honeywell to face stiff challenges as it looks to revive Intermec’s financial performance in its key markets – across regions, verticals and technology segments – and minimize the revenue impact of economic volatility in Europe. The company has, however, been very active with new product introductions across its barcode scanning and printing portfolios over the past 6-12 months, showcasing a continued focus on research and development initiatives.

The deal is a very strategic move by Honeywell and certainly shakes up the competitive landscape in the AutoID market. The addition of Intermec’s large installed base of customers and channel partners to its own positions the company for continued success in increasingly difficult and demanding operating conditions. Questions remain on what this means for Intermec’s employees, product lines and channel. And we will have the answers for you once this acquisition closes out in 2013.

Could RFID Lock Hack at US Hotel Chains Close the Door on NFC-enabled Security/Access Control Opportunity?

If you travel frequently, be warned: hackers have devised a way to bypass a particular type of electronic lock commonly found throughout leading hotel chains across the US (read original article here). With a little spare time and about $50 in common tools and materials, criminals across the US have been building these devices to break into hotel rooms (supposedly) secured with electronic keycard locks. The resulting e-lock pick is about the size of a marker and can be used to crack Onity HT and Advance locks found in an estimated 4 to 5 million hotel rooms nationwide, including those at certain Hyatt, Ramada, Doubletree Hilton and Country Inn & Suites locations. Obviously, this is terrible publicity for all the brands associated with this security failure—but we also see it as an unfortunate setback for RFID, NFC and other electronic security/access control solutions as well.

To be clear, the lock models targeted by this security hack are RFID-based. As far as we know, no other electronic security technologies (e.g., NFC, magnetic stripe, biometrics) have been compromised by this attack. Unfortunately for non-RFID electronic lock vendors, that fact might be of little consequence—especially in the context of end users’ perception.

The market for electronic hotel locks is somewhat unique in the sense that there are really two categories of end users: the hotels and their customers. Barring a PR disaster such as this, an e-lock vendor must only convince the former of the security and reliability of its locks to be successful—hotel guests will assume the lock on their door will do what it is supposed to—until a story like Onity’s goes viral.

Now, not only will hotel operators be avoiding Onity products due to this new security threat, so too will nervous hotel guests. While this presents an immense problem for Onity, we also see it as a challenge for all electronic security/access control vendors. While a hotel IT or security director may be savvy enough to distinguish between different lock vendors and enabling technologies—including RFID, NFC, magnetic stripe and biometrics—the average hotel guest most likely is not. Therein lays the problem for e-lock companies.

From a hotel operators’ perspective, guests’ perceptions carry significant weight—because if a guest is not confident in the hotel’s security, they are probably going to stay elsewhere. Thus, if the public becomes highly weary of electronic locks in general—to the point that their presence negatively impacts a hotel’s bookings—we bet operators would be swift to revert to old-fashioned lock-and-key or other more secure alternatives.

While fallout from this incident is not likely to be that severe, we expect it will cause many hotel operators to evaluate more carefully the reliability and security their future e-lock investments truly deliver. Moreover, this incident underscores the need for increased vigilance when it comes to securing electronically-enabled devices, particularly those that are customer-facing and likely to be targets of criminal attacks. Consumer trust is highly difficult to earn but can be lost instantly.

To NFC, or Not NFC? That Was My Personal Smartphone Question...

I admit it—I’m an Apple user. Call me whatever you want…fanboy, sheep, mindless minion worshipping at the altar of the Great Jobs. It doesn't bother me. In my experience, Apple stuff—while pricey—lasts longer, is generally easier to use for those of us who are not (and have aspirations of being) computer programmers and is usually (but not always) very well-designed and supported from UI, UX and aesthetic perspectives. Case in point: my recently deceased (cause of death: buggy “home” button) iPhone 3Gs provided nearly 4 years of trouble-free service despite the general abuse I heaped upon it.

Contrary to what one might assume, despite being a technology analyst, I do not eat, breathe and sleep tech. Certainly I appreciate technology for the conveniences and other benefits it provides me, but generally view any device as if it were an appliance. Sure, I get excited whenever it is time to look at a new laptop, smartphone or what have you—but after the initial novelty wears off, I just want the thing to function as intended—with minimal hassle and no headaches. I’m not the guy camping out in the mall for the latest i-device. I AM the guy who waited 7 years between getting a new laptop.

That being said, I have a soft spot in my heart reserved for NFC—both because I think it is a (potentially) useful technology and because I spend a significant amount of my work focuses on the market. With my iPhone having been on its last legs for the better part of this year, I (like many others) wanted a new iPhone with NFC. But, as we all know, the iPhone 5 is not NFC enabled. Thus, I had a decision to make with my new phone: stay loyal to Apple/iOS, or jump ship to Android or Windows and get a phone with NFC.

I thought long and hard about going the non-iOS/NFC route. I read many online reviews of leading Android and Windows smartphones. I tested the devices in-person at the store. I imagined what I might use NFC for in my day-to-day life—now, probably not much, but perhaps in the future, paying for lunch or a coffee with a tap of my phone. As someone who dislikes cash, contactless payment is an appealing concept.

Conversely, I envisioned the potential downsides of straying from iOS—mainly, hassles with syncing to my home computer (yes, it’s an Apple) and learning a new  mobile operating system. While both of these are relatively minor issues, I was left with wondering, why bother? What benefits does NFC offer that justify these (and other) compromises? I could not find a compelling answer to that question—and so I went with another iPhone.

Certainly, my personal technology usage, preferences and views may be unique. But, strictly in the context of NFC, I believe they are generally applicable to most consumers—and indicative of the NFC ecosystem’s shortcomings. Other than the increase in NFC smartphone availability seen in 2012, what material progress has the ecosystem made recently? Very little.

At present, in most regions, NFC cannot be used for the headline applications—payment and ticketing, for example—for which it is billed. Right now, most consumers using NFC are confined to simple, basic applications like P2P sharing and pairing.  For me—and I suspect many other consumers—these features are “nice-to-haves,” not “must-haves” when shopping for a new smartphone. Perhaps in the future, the NFC ecosystem will progress to the point where contactless payment and ticketing are broadly-accessible to the average consumer. But, until that time, it’s hard to envision NFC having a material impact on consumers’ device preferences—particularly those that are hooked on iOS.

RFID Could be the Prescription for Better Safety in Pharmaceutical Manufacturing

VDC believes recent, high-profile cases of tainted pharmaceuticals in the US potentially could drive RFID adoption within the US pharmaceutical industry. For example, consider the fungal meningitis outbreak that has emerged during the past several weeks and, to date, caused 25 deaths. Ultimately, the meningitis cases were linked to steroids manufactured by a Massachusetts-based company. As a result of the national scale and severe consequences of this incident, the US pharmaceutical industry is under intense public and regulatory scrutiny—and we think new, more stringent legislation for pharma could be the result. Specifically, VDC expects new FDA regulations governing the manufacture and tracing of drugs—from the manufacturer to the end consumer—could be one of the near-term outcomes of this outbreak. Such legislation could include mandated use of RFID or other solutions to provide better visibility into—and control of—the pharmaceutical supply chain.

Should the FDA require RFID use in pharmaceutical manufacturing, it would not be an unprecedented legislative development. In fact, the South Korean government has implemented regulations mandating RFID use by its domestic manufacturers to reduce drug counterfeiting and its various negative collateral effects (e.g., loss of revenues, reduced drug efficacy, risk to consumers, etc.). RFID tagging of drugs at the point of manufacture has a number of potential benefits, depending on the applications for which the technology is used. The following objectives are common RFID adoption drivers among pharmaceutical manufacturers:

• Ensuring drug authenticity
• Providing better visibility into the supply chain and chain-of-custody of controlled substances
• Improve patient safety by expediting recalls and eliminating counterfeit drugs

Considering the enormous size of the US pharma market (approximately $260 billion in 2011 revenues), increased adoption of RFID within this manufacturing sub-vertical would have material growth implications for the broader RFID market—especially if use of specific RFID solution types (e.g., track-and-trace, authentication) is mandated by future FDA legislation.

Regardless, bearing in mind the potentially dire consequences of tainted, counterfeited, or otherwise compromised drugs—both in terms of injury/death to consumers and the resulting liability claims, just to name two—VDC believes all pharmaceutical manufacturers are well-advised to evaluate all technology solutions (including RFID) that could improve patient safety and control of their supply chains, whether government mandated or not.