VDC Research: RFID, Barcode, Retail Automation & Self-Service Market Blog

A Logical RFID Application That Still Carries Some Heavy "Baggage"

Baggage handling is one of those “no-brainer” applications for passive UHF RFID technology. The use
case just makes sense.  Yet, after more than decade, this application market still struggles with historical issues. Although the benefits of the technology are clear, there have only been a small number of deployments worldwide. As adoption is most challenged by cost concerns, implementation challenge considerations and long-standing disagreements over who should pay for the system (airlines or airports).

Airline passengers are some of the most dissatisfied consumers in the world, especially in the United States.  And, the situation is only becoming worse as airlines cut staff, eliminate routes, add fees, and raise ticket prices to compensate for excessive fuel costs and other economic pressures.  The result has been massively lower customer satisfaction ratings. 

One major sore spot for air travellers continues to be lost baggage. And, now the baggage problem
is being compounded as extra fees are being charged for additional checked
bags.  If the airline misplaces or loses a bag that received a surcharge, imagine how upset a passenger would become after paying for checking in that bag. The airline may lose more than the bag – it will likely lose that customer.

• Lost baggage and handling issues are the focus - The impetus for many projects
  is the need reduce the time to transfer luggage. According to sources at the
  Lisbon Airport, the passive UHF RFID-based baggage handling system (BHS) has
  reduced the time to handle a baggage transfer by 66%. Other advantages include
  increased customer satisfaction and reduced labor (time to search for bags).
• McCarran International Airport (Las Vegas, US) expanded its program in 2012 - The
  new Terminal 3 has 130 self-check-in kiosks at which passengers can print their
  own passive UHF RFID-enabled baggage tags. This is innovative as printing has
  primarily been done behind the counter. More airports are expected to come
  online within 2-3 years; however, baggage handling system ownership (airports
  vs. airlines) and tagging costs remain major adoption barriers.
• Other considerations:

            -       More airports are expected to come online within 2-3 years; however, baggage handling                     system ownership (airports vs. airlines) and tagging costs remain major adoption                     barriers.

            -       Travelers are paying more than ever for checked baggage; however, lost baggage rates                     remain high and lead to customer frustration.  RFID technology can solve this industry                     challenge and make customers feel they are charged for a premium service as opposed                     to a bag fee.

            -       Delivered inlays and tags must be Gen2 compliant to ensure interoperability and IATA-                    approved.

            -       Only when more airlines and airports adopt passive UHF solutions will the commercial                     airline industry realize the full benefits of RFID.

While adoption has been limited to date, successful installations have occurred throughout the world. Some of the more prominent deployments include Schiphol Airport in Amsterdam, McCarran Airport in Las Vegas, Milan’s Malpensa Airport, Hong Kong International Airport, Portugal-Lisbon Airport and Aalborg Airport in Denmark.

While it may take some time, VDC Research does expect more airports and airlines to strongly consider RFID baggage handling systems and begin pilots and deployments. Like with most things RFID, time and actions will tell.  

VDC Research's 13 AutoID Predictions for 2013: Barcode, RFID & RTLS and Mobile Customer Engagement Technologies

Happy New Year! On behalf of the AutoID team and all of VDC Research Group, we wish you all the
best in 2013.

Although 2012 has just concluded, it is never too soon to look ahead. So to start the new year off in an interesting way, the AutoID team has taken out our crystal ball once again to offer 13 predictions for the AutoID market in 2013, including Barcode, RFID & RTLS and Mobile Consumer Engagement Technologies (MCET). They are presented in no particular order.  

1. Barcode: More market aggregation ahead – Expect continued consolidation of the barcode
   hardware landscape, particularly to achieve growth across following dimensions:
   • Regional – Vendors seeking to grow their presence in emerging country markets,
     particularly targeting barcode printer and scanner vendors based out of
     Asia-Pacific.
   • Vertical – Vendors looking to increase their proliferation into high-growth industry
     verticals – particularly healthcare.
2. Barcode: Vendors will learn to “accessorize” – More barcode hardware players will actively
   look to enter the “accessories” market – developing sleds and/or sleeves to support consumer-grade device usage in enterprise environments. This is particularly relevant to vendors addressing customer-facing applications with their devices in retail, healthcare, hospitality and commercial services. 
3. Barcode: Future with mobility, not without in software market – An increasing number
   of barcode software solution providers will extend label printing support to portable devices (both purpose-built and consumer-grade) – facilitating mobile applications such as field sales, field service and direct store delivery (DSD). Today, mobile barcode label generation software penetration is in a very nascent stage, but we expect that to quickly change. Mobility IS the way forward across verticals and industries and the entire barcode value chain must and will respond accordingly.
4. Barcode: Embrace the tech-savvy consumer – Scanning with and displaying barcodes on mobile device screens will continue to grow significantly among consumers. Barcode vendors and their enterprise and retail customers must continuously adapt to this explosive trend. We predict more QSRs (quick service restaurants), convenience stores, restaurants, theme parks/ entertainment venues and other consumer-facing enterprises will invest in and deploy barcode imagers and consumer-grade mobile devices to interact with consumers (e.g., coupon redemption, payment, loyalty/rewards programs).
5. MCET: Mobile point-of-sale (mPOS) will remain the hottest technology among B2C business operators – This trend will be most prominent in retail, but increasingly in dining as well, despite the fact that enterprises often lack clear strategic objectives guiding their investment in the same. In 2013, MCET solution providers must assume leadership roles in educating their customers on technology selection, software and security, best-fit use cases for specific mobile devices/form factors and total cost of ownership (TCO).
6. MCET: NFC as a broader ecosystem will make little progress beyond incremental gains in
   shipments of NFC-enabled smartphones – Yes, this means more NFC-equipped phones in consumer hands, and limited scale pilots and tests will continue, but 2013 is not the year when the technology gains global-level traction. However, expect more TV commercials for mobile phones and mobile network operators (MNOs) to advertise NFC and its applications – and more importantly, look for more commercials to specifically mention the term “NFC” in order to engrain the technology in consumer minds.
7. MCET: Merchants’ general focus on mobility - mPOS in particular - will bring great opportunity for vendors of adjacent peripherals – POS peripheral vendors (e.g., receipt printers, barcode scanners, payment solutions) are expected to drive growth via innovative, highly-portable versions of these traditional POS extensions. These vendors will be jockeying for competitive position more aggressively in 2013, responding to burgeoning demand among retailers, restaurants, hospitality and other enterprises wanting to differentiate and augment their systems by  “going mobile” at the POS.
8. MCET: Contactless mobile payment via NFC will not explode in popularity among consumers during 2013, but consumer usage and merchant support of this application will experience strong growth – Barcodes displayed on mobile device screens and core/traditional RFID (e.g., contactless tickets, smartcards) – not NFC – will continue to enjoy broader global support for mobile payments in the foreseeablefuture. For NFC to gain ground in 2013, more NFC-enabled devices must reach consumer hands, more NFC-compatible payment terminals must be deployed and more collaboration among invested parties must occur within the NFC ecosystem (especially in terms of consumer education, transaction fee negotiations/resolution, and application development).
9. RFID & RTLS: Vendors – especially RTLS solution providers – will develop the “healthcare
   stare” – The use of RFID and RTLS is on the rise in healthcare, most notably in the US thanks to the VA’s announced $540M+ contract to track equipment and supplies at 21 of its Veteran Integrated Service Networks (VISNs).  However, the contract award to HP was not met without controversy in 2012 as IBM filed a protest to the US Government Accountability Office (GAO) and won the decision. The contract will be rebid among, at least, the six original bidders.  This spark to the market (and sizeable contract) drew a lot of attention in 2012 and we expect the RFID and RTLS frenzy to continue in healthcare in 2013. However, we caution vendors (especially RTLS providers) to not focus solely on healthcare and to seek opportunities and market development in other vertical markets where the competitive field may be less crowded.
10. RFID & RTLS: Passive UHF EPC item-level tagging (ILT) in the apparel sector will
    pick up the pace after a somewhat slow 2012 – This past year was a mild disappointment in terms of retailer deployment of RFID for ILT of apparel. For example, no major reader or printer/encoder orders were delivered, several large retailers remain behind originally announced plans (e.g., Wal-Mart, JC Penney) and some newer programs were pushed to or will start in 2013.  So what to expect in the year ahead? Even more American Apparel stores will go live with RFID (a bright spot for 2012 as well), Wal-Mart will reassess its RFID plans but remain committed, Macy’s will make its anticipated move, JC Penney has bigger worries than RFID, international retailer Zara will play a key role in increasing tag volumes and RFID EAS will become a more critical part of the ILT in apparel conversation.
11. RFID & RTLS: Embedded RFID keeps the forward momentum – At the end of 2011 we
    noted the rise of “RFID inside,” or embedded RFID, as a key trend to watch for in 2012.  We are keeping it on the list in 2013 after seeing a great deal of progress in 2012. For example, ThingMagic released a new, smaller passive UHF reader module, Xerafy continued product development for embedded RFID specialty tags (e.g., tools), ICs and chipsets from players such as Impinj, NXP, Murata and AMS decreased their footprints, Coca-Cola Freestyle dispensers with passive UHF technology inside continued deploment, RFID and NFC made their way into consumer devices such as Keurig Vue coffee brewers and Nintendo Wii (Skylanders game) and much more. With price points declining and form factors shrinking, we expect to see solutions and applications such as these expand and new innovations to be introduced in 2013.
12. RFID & RTLS: Honeywell Scanning & Mobility will get strategic on RFID – and quickly
    – after announcing its first RFID product and the acquisition of Intermec in 2012 – After some exploration of RFID while acquiring several barcode scanner and mobile computing companies over the last few years, Honeywell made some eye-catching RFID moves in 2012. They made a subtle move in introducing an RFID reader and then made a major move in announcing the acquisition of Intermec (a major RFID IP holder and RFID equipment manufacturer). We predict Honeywell will aggressively develop its RFID strategy in 2013, becoming a strong competitor in select verticals and applications that play to the combined strengths of Honeywell and Intermec. What’s next for Honeywell – RTLS in 2013 or 2014?
13. AutoID: Governments in China and the EU continue to connect with the concept of the Internet of Things (IoT) – While the US government remains largely silent, China and
    the EU actively fund research IoT projects, create policies to govern the IoT and deploy IoT technologies (including RFID, NFC and sensors). Much of the IoT activity in the US has been at the city level (e.g., smart cities) and we do not expect that to change. In looking ahead and predicting where will be the epicenter of IoT innovation, we are placing our bets on China. Simply look at what is on the list of IoT development subsidy projects from China's Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and Ministry of Finance (announced November 2012). UHF and microwave RFID chip design, product technology R&D, miniaturized intelligent sensor technology R&D, ad-hoc networking technology for wireless sensor networks, intelligent logistics and intelligent traffic are among the 14 categories of project, comprising 149 projects in total, which will receive support from the government.

I would like to extend a special thank you to Richa Gupta (VDC’s barcode analyst) and John Shuster (VDC’s MCET analyst) for their contributions to this blog.

Epson Mobilizes to Address Rapidly Growing mPOS Opportunity

Still questioning whether consumer-grade mobile POS (mPOS) devices are a short-lived trend or a here-to-stay expansion of the broader front-end technology solutions at many leading mainstream merchants? Here is another strong point in favor of the latter: Epson, the global market leader in POS receipt printers, recently announced its Mobilink P60 mobile receipt and label printer supports Bluetooth connectivity to facilitate wireless pairing with all Apple i-devices and a diversity of other Bluetooth-equipped consumer-grade devices. The Company simultaneously introduced a new software development kit (SDK) for iOS, Android and Windows operating systems that is intended to expedite the development of mPOS and label printing applications that leverage the Bluetooth-enabled Mobilink printer.

As mPOS solutions gain stronger adoption among retailers and hospitality operators—sometimes as an enterprise’s exclusive POS system—the demand for reliable, easy-to-use printing solutions that complement the mobility and empowerment mPOS provides workers is growing increasingly strong. In response, a number of POS receipt printer vendors—including Epson—have been swift to launch portable versions of their standard, stationary POS printers. These portable printers are certainly smaller than their stationary counterparts and are “mobile” in the sense that they can be easily transported. However, while smaller in relative terms, they are not ideally sized to be wearable for the average worker.

For this reason, we believe a Bluetooth-enabled printer such as Epson’s offering will­­­­ be well-received by many mPOS deploying merchants, especially those using mPOS “within the four walls,” as opposed to in field-sales or other remote applications. The deployment of Bluetooth-enabled stationary and portable printers enables mPOS-equipped associates to fulfill any printing requirements encountered during their shift while freeing them from the burden of carrying another device on their person. Furthermore, enabling on-the-go, mobile printing via shared Bluetooth-enabled (or other wirelessly accessible) devices allows enterprises to reduce printing hardware investment by eliminating the need to equip every associate with their own mobile printer. Accordingly, in the case of many mPOS deployments, we expect this approach to mobile printing will be favored both for its lower investment costs and freeing employees from carrying additional equipment.

France-based m.Wallet Consortium Leader Chooses Barcode, not NFC

Auchan, a leading French supermarket chain, announced plans to launch a cross-merchant m.wallet app called Flash ‘n’ Pay (FNP). The FNP app will be very similar to the one currently in development at the Merchant-Customer Exchange (MCX), which we discussed in a previous post. Like MCX, the FNP app can be used with all credit/debit card brands, supports loyalty cards and is MNO and issuing-bank agnostic. FNP also shares the same enabling technology as MCX—the app will be barcode-based, not NFC.

Whereas France is among the countries leading European NFC adoption, one might understandably assume that a retailer-led m.wallet app designed for that market would be NFC-based, not barcode. However, NFC faces many of the same fundamental challenges to mass adoption in France that it does in most other countries: 

• NFC-based apps cannot be used by many current smartphone users—barcode is accessible to virtually all
• NFC-based payment requires cooperation across multiple stakeholders—barcode does not
• Barcode-based apps are easier and less costly to support—and many B2C merchants already have the requisite 2D imagers installed at the POS

Certainly, NFC adoption in France is stronger relative to most other national markets, thanks in large part to the French government’s recent commitment to fund contactless transportation infrastructure in approximately 15 cities. However, NFC’s long-term potential as a B2C commerce enabler in France—and in most countries, save for a select few in Asia-Pacific—remains highly uncertain.

We view Auchan’s selection of barcode for its m.wallet as a particularly noteworthy development by virtue of its regional context. If an NFC m.wallet is not viable for a French retailer, in which countries is it?  From our perspective, the FNP announcement demonstrates how far NFC has yet to progress before it attains mainstream status, even in the countries/regions where adoption is relatively strong today.

NCR Continues to Diversify with Acquisition of Retalix

NCR formally announced this past Wednesday an agreement to acquire Retalix, an Israeli vendor of retail, marketing, supply chain and logistics software solutions. The transaction is valued at $30 per share, or approximately $650 million and is expected to close sometime during Q1 2013. NCR intends to finance the acquisition via a combination of cash and an existing debt facility. Via the acquisition of Retalix, NCR strengthens its competitive position in several respects:

• Expanding its retail automation and customer engagement hardware offerings to include a more diversified range of software solutions, both for customer- and employee-facing applications
• Broadening its services portfolio to include additional professional/integration and managed services options
• Solidifying its status as a go-to vendor for end-to-end solutions that meet the specific, unique requirements of retail end users

We view the Retalix acquisition as a well-advised strategic move that furthers NCR’s diversification into the enterprise software market. While it has historically been known for high-end customer engagement and retail automation hardware (in addition to kiosks, ATMs, etc.), during the past 18 months, NCR has made a concerted effort to broaden its software portfolios—especially those geared towards retail and hospitality end users—via strategic acquisition and organic development.

For example, in August 2011, NCR acquired Radiant Systems, a specialized provider of hospitality POS software and solutions, for approximately $1.2 billion. The addition of Radiant materially strengthened NCR’s competitive position within hospitality, where the company had historically been weak relative to its status as a retail leader. In retail, the company recently launched its NCR Silver product—which enables merchants to integrate POS-enabled iPads, iPhones and iPod touches with stationary POS terminals—to address the rapidly growing demand for consumer-grade mobile device use in the enterprise. While Silver is geared towards SMBs, we expect the Retalix solutions that will soon be part of the NCR portfolio will appeal to a broader range of retailers, including Tier 1 leaders like Home Depot and Walmart, where the company has a well-established installed base.

Furthermore, we believe NCR’s efforts to diversify its software and service capabilities are indicative of a broader interest among end users (merchants and hospitality operators especially) to leverage technology platforms for a set of applications well beyond those with which they are traditionally associated. In the context of POS systems, for example, requirements now often include applications besides typical sales and payment functions. In hospitality, operators also need to accept/administer loyalty programs, manage digital menu boards, accept mobile payments/coupons and potentially support a range of back-of-house functions as well. Retail has similarly diverse requirements—and the acquisition of Retalix will enable NCR to meet these needs more consistently across a broader range of merchants. 

The growing importance of specialized merchant/hospitality solutions is a topic we will explore further our upcoming MCET research—contact us for details.

VDC Heads to the Big Apple for CET World 2012

The VDC AutoID team was in the Big Apple on Wednesday for the 2012 edition of Customer Engagement Technology World (CETW). Despite the recent hardships caused by Hurricane Sandy last week, this year’s show went on as scheduled and drew the usual, diverse crowd of vendors and end-users that attend CETW. Although the show floor was somewhat dominated by vendors of kiosk and digital signage hardware, software and solutions, other areas of the CET spectrum—including POS/mPOS terminals, consumer-facing mobile apps and customer analytics—were also well represented. Our observations at CETW 2012 left us with a several takeaways:

• Self-service solutions are alive and well. As we discussed in a recent post, during the past 12-18 months we have observed a certain level of anti-self-service sentiment among some end-user verticals, including restaurants/dining and retail. While there are definitely examples of enterprises that are moving away from self-service solutions, including self-checkout, kiosks and some forms of interactive displays, these particular instances are not indicative of any mass migration away from these technologies. In fact, these self-service solutions continue to evolve and progress in regards to their functionality and ease-of-deployment. Companies such as NCR are developing more capable and more easily-integrated self-service technologies, such as their NetKey offering.
• Merchant/retailer interest in mobility solutions continues to build. The concept of mobility—whether in the context of m.POS, m.payment or any other enterprise application—continues to build momentum. In regards to m.POS and m.payment especially, it seems these concepts have become so trendy as of late that some end-users are evaluating investment in them simply due to the buzz surrounding them. Several mobility vendors we spoke with at the event noted they are hearing from an increasing number of merchants who want to invest in m.POS/m.payment solutions—but have not defined the objectives for their deployment of the same. While these cases may be more of an indictment of the technology strategy—or lack thereof—at the merchants in question, we also see it as a strong indicator that retailers have generally acknowledged the value mobility provides in many applications.
• Personalized communications/offers that cater to individual preferences are a good start, but there is still a long way to go. For example, to engage a customer and maintain his/her loyalty it is equally important—if not more so—to avoid suggesting things that a customer may dislike or find offensive. Similarly, context and timeliness of communications are also important dimensions to consider—as events such as birthdays, anniversaries, or (to cite a timely example) storms and other natural events may have important implications for what a consumer wants—or does not want—to hear from a merchant. Clearly, tailoring communications to this level of precision is far more complex and challenging than simply making add-on sale suggestions or deal offers based on past purchase history—but with the increasingly advanced capabilities of analytics and other data-management tools, it is not an impossible task. 

For VDC, CETW 2012 was an informative, interesting and timely event, particularly as we prepare to launch its new MCET research program in the upcoming months. Contact us for more information about that research, in which we will discuss the above trends and many others impacting merchants and the technology providers that serve them.

Think Self-Checkout is Dead? Think Again.

During the past 18 months or so, we have observed a decidedly negative attitude towards the future viability of Self-Checkout (SCO) solutions in US retailers. Throughout 2011 and 2012, a number of large grocery chains—including Kroger and Albertsons—announced SCO lanes will be replaced with old-fashioned staffed lanes instead. The retail technology blogosphere has also joined the anti-automation bandwagon, with articles frequently bemoaning the clunky operation of early solutions and their perceived job-killing effect. Despite this anti-SCO sentiment, many store chains across all retail sub-verticals continue to offer SCO as a checkout option. In fact, some merchants are actually increasing SCO investment. This week, NCR announced it will deliver 10,000 additional SCO stations across WalMart’s 1200 US stores during 2013. Financial terms of the deal were not disclosed, but, based on VDC’s most recent AFSP data, we estimate the value of this contract to be approximately $150-160 million.

Notwithstanding its abandonment by certain retailers, SCO remains a useful technology when deployed in appropriate retail settings. Like any other solution, it has certain vertical/sub-vertical applications to which it’s well-suited, and others it’s not. While certain early SCO systems were buggy and difficult to use (we have experienced them ourselves), modern offerings have largely addressed these shortcomings, offer time-strapped shoppers an attractive alternative to waiting in line and often complement other retail solutions such as Personal Shopping Systems. VDC therefore believes SCO will remain an important component of many retailers’ broader front-end technology solutions, particularly in grocery/supermarket, mass merchants, wholesale clubs and home improvement stores.

In regards to WalMart’s upcoming SCO rollout, we expect its investment decision was motivated in part by the retailer’s ongoing experimentation with customer-operated mobile shopping apps. Specifically, WalMart is one of the founding members of the Merchant Customer Exchange (a consortium of more than 20 US merchants working cooperatively to develop an interoperable, cross-brand mobile wallet) and also recently announced small-scale pilots of a smartphone-based self-scanning app. As these two initiatives progress—and if/when they move towards full-scale deployment—we expect self-service technology like SCO will play a key role in their day-to-day use by customers. Convenience and time savings are two of the key value propositions these mobile apps offer, and both are strengthened by the presence of SCO as a checkout option. Accordingly, we expect to see SCO defend its established place within the retail automation spectrum, especially among technology-embracing merchants like WalMart . Furthermore, by virtue of its recognition as a retail sector leader, WalMart could give its SCO-doubting peers reason to reevaluate their own automation strategies.

Consumer-Grade Devices in Retail—Now It’s Serious

How does one discern when an emerging technology trend (for example, using consumer devices for POS applications in retail) is materially impacting a well-established market from a broader, macro-level perspective? Answer: The moment one (or more) of the share leaders in that particular market implicitly acknowledges the trend in question, either via the launch of a new product, acquisition, partnership, or some other form of strategic maneuvering.

In cases of highly disruptive trends—where the dominance of the established leader(s) is potentially at stake—such acknowledgement of legitimacy usually follows extensive denial. During the denial period, the trend in question is generally dismissed on the basis of “having weak security”, “lacking durability”, “being poorly suited to application X or installation environment Y” or some combination thereof. Finally, only after realizing the opportunity it’s missing—and share it’s losing—by ignoring the trend in question, the established leader addresses what is now a proven market requirement. If the company truly learned its lesson, the story usually ends happily-ever-after. If not, slow-and-painful death is the typical outcome (see: RIM).

One such trend that has manifested itself in many parts of the broader enterprise technology market is the general embracement of consumer-grade devices—particularly smartphones, but also tablets—for a range of applications in a diversity of vertical markets. In the context of this blog we’re discussing specifically the increasingly common use of smartphones and tablets in retail, especially for POS applications.  Real-life examples of this phenomenon can be found at merchants of all sizes: Lowe’s sales associates carry the iPhone equipped with a mag-stripe reader sled, while Nordstrom, Urban Outfitters and Pacific Sunwear have all deployed iPads for various consumer-facing applications. The trend is not limited to Tier 1 retailers, either—independent merchants also use consumer devices to process transactions with the help of solution providers like Square and Intuit’s GoPayment.

A small number of highly dominant firms befitting the “800-pound gorilla” moniker lead the enterprise-grade POS solution market. VDC’s POS market research indicates that the top 5 POS vendors—IBM, NCR, Wincor Nixdorf, Toshiba TEC and MICROS, respectively—account for nearly 60% of the market, while the remaining share is fragmented across more than a dozen smaller players. Each of these companies’ POS business is built on application-specific, enterprise-grade, complete solutions.

While traditional POS systems (as opposed to consumer-grade devices) still comprise the majority of POS solution revenues, consumer devices now represent a serious enough threat that several of the aforementioned leaders now offer tablet/smartphone solutions alongside their traditional POS products. For example, MICROS offers an iPad-based ordering app that tethers with its traditional restaurant-focused POS solutions, while NCR introduced “Silver,” an iPad-based POS solution that includes a card reader, cash drawer and plug & play integration with other POS hardware—including standard NCR terminals and iPhones. Today NCR announced it will partner with Socket Mobile, a leading mobile computing and data capture solutions provider, to integrate a cordless barcode scanner with Silver.

In an effort to fend off online competition, VDC expects brick & mortar merchants will continue investing in improving the customer’s in-store experience. Consumer-grade mobile devices will play an important role in achieving this strategic goal via mobilizing store associates—thereby enabling them to serve shoppers on the retail floor at the point of decision—rather than forcing the customer to locate a fixed point-of-sale or service desk. This trend has been building for the past several years—and we think it will continue gaining momentum for the foreseeable future. If you are interested in learning more about the use of consumer-grade devices in the enterprise, contact us to learn more about our new Mobile Customer Engagement Technologies (MCET) research service, which will cover this trend and its implications in depth.

Bonjour from the NFC World Congress—Day 1 Conference Recap

VDC is back at the NFC World Congress in beautiful Nice, France. With a larger roster of delegates and exhibitors participating in this year’s conference, the event was moved from Sophia Antipolis (one of the suburbs surrounding Nice) right into the heart of the city for 2012. The first day of the Congress was dedicated to panel discussions and presentations, but thanks to a robust, well-rounded lineup of speakers, there is no shortage of interesting NFC-related insight to share. We will be certain to report the highlights of tomorrow’s session on the exhibition floor, but for now here is a review of some of today's presentation highlights:

• Microsoft demonstrated its NFC-enabled Windows Phone 8 during an engaging presentation led by John Skovron, the product manager leading the Windows Phone initiative. Long story short: both the phone and the Windows OS look very promising. While Microsoft’s earlier forays into consumer electronics are probably best forgotten (see: Zune mp3 player), we think the Windows Phone 8 (especially the OS) is a solid product. If consumers are willing to give it a chance, we think this device/OS could win share in the smartphone market and drive consumer-level adoption of NFC. Furthermore, we think Microsoft has its collective thinking in the right place when it comes to NFC applications. During the presentation, discussion surrounding near-term application opportunities focused on non-secure (i.e., non-payment) use-cases. We look forward to seeing the Windows Phone 8 solution launch soon.
• Nokia, Microsoft, Device Fidelity and GSMA kicked off today’s proceedings with a discussion of the implications of Apple’s ongoing absence from the NFC ecosystem, a timely topic considering that it was approximately one week ago the company announced definitively that the iPhone 5 would not include NFC. While this announcement was certainly disappointing for many NFC ecosystem stakeholders, the tone of today’s conversations was decidedly upbeat and resolute. As we suggested in our post-iPhone 5 announcement blog, it seems that Congress participants are generally viewing this development as a call-to-action to educate end users (both consumer and enterprise) about NFC.
• Samsung discussed the impressive sales performance of its Galaxy line of NFC-enabled smartphones. The company expects North American shipments of smartphones (all brands, not just Samsung) during 2013 will have an NFC attach-rate of 23%, up from approximately 8% this year, while global NFC smartphone shipments will nearly double, reaching 183 million units. Of course, only time will tell if these forecasts prove true, but regardless, they demonstrate the major growth potential that remains in the market for NFC-enabled smartphones and complimentary NFC solutions.

We have another busy day tomorrow filled with meetings and seeing the best new NFC products and demonstrations the exhibition floor has to offer. Check back here tomorrow for another update from the Cote d’ Azur. Au revoir for now!

Wait ‘til Next Year (At least)…No NFC for the iPhone 5

Today Apple unveiled its much-anticipated iPhone 5—but NFC was not among the new features. While the new iPhone includes LTE, a 4 inch screen and a range of other incremental improvements, there will be no NFC in the iPhone for at least another year. We expect Apple’s latest NFC snub caught some by surprise, especially because several NFC-related patents granted to Apple during the past year suggested that the iPhone 5 would include the technology.

While the possibility remains some future iPhone iteration could integrate NFC, at this point, VDC does not foresee this happening unless material progress is made in the global NFC ecosystem—particularly in regards to the development of a robust contactless infrastructure in all regional markets, stronger enterprise investment in B2C apps and demonstrated consumer interest in using the technology. Time and again, Apple has deferred the integration of new technologies into its devices until they are fully proven, broadly accepted by the market and the company has developed a solution to support (if not monetize) them. At this point in time, NFC meets none of these criteria and, frankly, it is difficult to envision NFC progressing so significantly during the next 12 months that the iPhone 5s (or whatever the next generation device is called) would include NFC. It could happen, certainly, but we would not bet on it.

Furthermore, for at least the next year, Apple can legitimately be considered an NFC competitor. Via its new Passbook app, which is a key new iOS 6 feature, Apple is no longer on the contactless solution sidelines—it has adopted barcode in lieu of NFC. Passbook, which is essentially a mobile wallet of sorts, is capable of supporting certain contactless transactions, including ticketing (e.g., Delta Airlines) and payment at specific merchants (e.g., Starbucks). Just because Passbook is enabled by mobile barcode today does not mean future versions are precluded from NFC integration. However, in regions (such as the US) where the iPhone is especially dominant, NFC will remain challenged to become the preferred enabler of various mobile applications (e.g., payment, marketing, loyalty, etc.)

While the iPhone 5 announcement is certainly bad news for the prospects of the broader NFC market, there are still bright spots:

• Android is a larger and faster growing mobile OS: this is particularly true in EMEA and APAC where contactless infrastructure is more prevalent, and Android already supports NFC
• NFC has key differentiators that QR code, 2D barcode and the Cloud cannot match: These include speed/ease of use, stronger security, P2P capability and the ability to transmit information without a network connection
• New mobile OS options supporting NFC are in the pipeline: Windows Mobile, for example, will reach the market soon and could drive NFC adoption if it's well-received by consumers

From our perspective at VDC, the iPhone 5 introduction should send one very clear message to those suppliers and developers already engaged in the NFC ecosystem: stop pinning the hopes of your company and the broader market on the participation of Apple. Not only may it never integrate NFC into the iPhone or any of its other devices, Apple is now competing directly against NFC by virtue of the Passbook app. Now is the time to educate consumers and enterprises about what NFC is, what it can do, and why it’s better than competing solutions. Continue waiting 'til next year and by then it may very well be too late.