VDC Research: Embedded Microprocessor, Board & Systems Market Blog

IoT Forcing Embedded Boards and Systems Vendors to Adapt to Survive

Emerging embedded hardware requirements are stirring up competition for motherboards and integrated systems while driving demand for more IoT-related systems integration services.

The global markets for embedded boards and integrated computer systems will see growing competition over the next five years, according to a new report by VDC Research (click here to learn more). The embedded hardware space is vast, continually evolving, and extremely fragmented with larger organizations often supplying several different board and/or system form factors as well as potentially a variety of SKUs featuring different configurations thereof. Systems integration services, in turn, are benefiting from the growing complexity of modern (connected) embedded systems and are seeing greater use for IoT designs.

“Complacency now will seriously hamstring the long-term development and growth potential for all embedded hardware players,” says VDC analyst Daniel Mandell. “Ramping requirements for processing performance, footprint, and scalability are forcing embedded hardware suppliers to adapt and adopt to new product form factors such as MicroATX, VPX, and xITX. Some more mature hardware form factors like ATCA will continue to see slight growth through the next five years, though new organic revenue generating opportunities for incumbent suppliers will be scarce and increasingly challenged by alternative architectures.”

For small-form-factor embedded systems, computer-on-modules (COMs) have emerged as a convenient solution for enabling cost-effective hardware flexibility. While a variety of COM standards have fragmented the market, some form factors such as COM Express and Qseven are expected to see strong market growth. Kontron is the longstanding frontrunner of the embedded COMs space, having pioneered the concept. Unlike COMs, the global market for PC/104 family modules is expected to remain relatively stagnant through the next five years as suppliers look to adopt newer and more heterogeneous form factors like EPIC.

The market share leaders for embedded integrated systems have focused their recent acquisitions and collaborations on facilitating software development and enabling broader industry application support. The potential acquisition of EMC Corporation by Dell could produce a new leader in the embedded integrated systems market. HP Enterprise has made some dramatic acquisitions in 2015 to expand its portfolio of LAN offerings and help its customers transition to hybrid cloud environments. To remain competitive with new and traditional market players, embedded systems suppliers must bolster their support and development offerings for more of the solution stack.

Online Resources: VDC's Embedded Boards, Integrated Systems, and Systems Integration Services Research Program - Learn About The Research Program

The End of Moore’s Law or Just the Beginning?

In 1965, Gordon E. Moore, the founder of Intel, noticed that the number of components in integrated circuits had doubled every year since their inception in 1958. Moore predicted that this doubling of components would continue at an annual rate for at least another 10 years. Nearly fifty years later, Moore’s Law, as it is commonly referred to today, continues to be the driving force behind the technological growth of the semiconductor industry. Despite its influence continually pushing innovations in processing speed, memory capacity, sensors, and even pixels in digital cameras, the general consensus amongst chip manufacturers is that Moore’s Law will soon come to an abrupt halt.

Rising costs of the manufacturing process have been linked most strongly with the demise of Moore’s Law. Chip designers’ ability to design such complex chips is falling behind the increasing demands of the manufacturing process. As a result, IBM estimated that Moore’s Law will come to an end sometime between 2015 and 2020. Robert Colwell, former chief architect for Intel, believes that the law could be dead, at the latest, by 2022. While it might be possible to build sub-5 nanometer chips by 2022, the expense and degree of duplication, so as to ensure proper functionality, will be far from cost-effective.

Chip manufacturers, including Intel, are well aware of the costly and complicated manufacturing techniques used in decreasing the size of embedded processors and realize that 5nm is likely the stopping point. Intel is currently working on implementing a 10nm chip by as soon as 2015. With the industry set for a new era of chip manufacturing past the 5nm benchmark, how exactly can Moore’s Law remain the industry standard? Well, plain and simple, Moore’s Law will end with transistors’ diminution. However, this does not mean to say that an entirely new law cannot be created; a law based on the premise of Gordon Moore’s original projection.

Quantum computers show the most promise for further development of integrated circuits. By combining quantum physics with semiconductor technology, we can potentially process information on a scale far beyond what is currently possible. Moreover, parallel computing can just as easily provide a platform for future economic growth and commercial innovation, as evidenced by the growing applicability of GPGPUs and similar technologies in embedded hardware. Carbon nanotubes have also burst onto the scene – outperforming silicon in terms of energy efficiency. We at VDC Research believe that the principal mechanics of Moore’s Law will continue to live on past the era of transistors and into burgeoning computing technologies like quantum computing, parallel computing, and carbon nanotubes.

by Conor Peal, Research Associate

Calling all Embedded Board & Module Suppliers – Stand up and be Heard!

The winds of change are blowing through the embedded computer board and module market. As 2014 approaches, recent market consolidations and reorganizations will solidify. 2013 will go down as one of the most important years for suppliers to make their voices heard by VDC. Why is this so important? In 2014 and beyond there will be significant shifts in demand for embedded board and module products as seen by these results from VDC's 2013 survey.

Many OEM engineers will be designing their new products and, for the first time they will be using embedded modules as opposed to other product alternatives. At the same time, existing module users will be looking to migrate to the latest x86, ARM and/or FPGA processors and module types. These OEM engineers will value an authoritative 3^rd party source to better allow them to determine which product types are strongly supported and, which product types not gain the necessary market traction.  On a similar note, these OEM engineers and other entities with interest in the embedded market are looking to VDC to determine which suppliers are becoming the most resilient, innovative, and successful in the markets they serve. VDC provides this industry-wide guidance by taking a 360 degree view of the market but, even so, the supplier inputs we receive are, among the most valuable.

At present, VDC has been in contact with over 90 suppliers we believe are significant to the market and after many initial discussions have provided our top-level estimates for their company. We are following these e-mails and calls with our 2013 survey that has detailed estimates. If you have NOT received these e-mails, calls and survey and, you believe your company should be represented, please contact us immediately. If you have received this survey it MUST be received by Friday October 4 to ensure any corrections or fresh guidance are included in the VDC models that drive our reports.

 

3D Printing Will Impact Embedded Computing? VDC’s View of the Future

Technologies are evolving quickly in 3D printing and new nano-materials. Will these new technologies impact the market for embedded computing products? We believe the answer is, yes, but, not immediately. The 3D printing process is too slow for the production volumes needed for many if not most products that contain embedded computing. The first embedded market impact of new 3D and nano technologies will be on the engineering processes that create products not the products themselves.

Is the concept of printing electronic circuits new? Not in the slightest. When I first began my engineering career in the late 70s, the company I worked for produced laser trim systems. These systems were used by customers to measure and perfectly adjust the resistors on ceramic modules that had been printed using a silk screen printing process.

Exhibit 1: Screen Printed Thick Film Ceramic Module

After process steps for printing the circuit traces and resistive components, the laser system would then be used to make continual measurements as laser pulses cut into the resistive material. This would increase the resistance until it met the target value. Prior to laser technology, this same task would have used a sand blast method. In either case, the modules would be completed by adding semiconductor dies and encapsulating the module.

Printed circuit boards (PCBs) are not really printed as much as they are plated and etched. Because of the density and complex circuits multiple layers are usually required. PCBs like the 70’s era ceramic modules require significant manpower and expense to design and layout the circuits and then create the necessary screens and photo masks needed to produce the product. Even with all the automated tools that engineers can utilize, this PCB development process can take a significant amount of time. If the first articles produced are found to have problems, a re-spin adds more time-to-market delay. It is worth noting that the equipment needed to create PCBs and embedded modules are expensive and therefore most companies rely on contract manufacturing specialists to produce them.

The same pictured module could be produced using a 3D printer either on top of ceramic or, perhaps, using another material as a substrate. The base might even be flexible, allowing the finished product to be more adaptable. By precisely controlling the amount of resistive material, a trimming process could possibly be eliminated. Even capacitors could, (in theory), be printed.

Most importantly, a small engineering team could be testing a prototype of a new embedded computer product within hours of developing it. Production of the verified design would still be completed by the aforementioned contract manufacturers, but the time-to-market would be more compressed and there would far less uncertainty about having to make engineering corrections. At a minimum, the ability to rapidly produce prototypes and proof-of-concept products can level the playing field for smaller less capitalized embedded computer suppliers.

In the distant future, as 3D printing capabilities and speed increase along with the development of nano materials that can be used as “ink”, embedded hardware may take on an entire new meaning. Consider an automotive part like a bumper that was manufactured with all of the electronics needed for a collision avoidance system completely embedded in the bumper’s material. As the bumper is printed, the circuit traces and components could be printed or picked and placed. Is this printing/embedded process feasible today? No, but like previous disruptive technologies its time will come.

What should embedded suppliers do now? As 3D and material technologies start to mature and stabilize, suppliers should begin to use 3D printing to produce prototypes of embedded sub-modules. This exercise should be conducted in parallel with traditional processes to test if and when time to market compression exists. When the new technologies are proven, suppliers can confidently develop new products because they will know that the engineering prototypes they produce will be reliable proxies for their completed products.

At the Design West – Embedded Systems Conference 2013 – Part 2

In this blog we will continue to provide a few more highlights from the suppliers we spoke to at the 2013 DESIGN WEST / Embedded Systems Conference that was held last week in San Jose.

Small Form Factor Motherboards: At the VersaLogic booth we were shown several of their new small form factor motherboards, including the EBX format Copperhead that is powered by an Intel i7 processor and can support up to 3 independent displays. We also saw their COM Express Mini format Falcon and EPIC format Iguana that are powered by Intel Atom processors. The Iguana boards have a Mini PCIe card socket that allows an OEM to round out its configuration with a wide array of connectivity, storage, and other options. All of the Versalogic products we saw at the show were designed for extremely high reliability in operating temperatures that extend from -40C to +85C, and many of them can be ordered in Class 3 assembly versions for mission critical applications.

Computers-on-Modules (COMs): At the congatec booth we saw the variety of COM product lines they offer including Qseven, COM Express, ETX, and XTX. If customers require high power COMs in passive cooling configurations, congatec has patented spring loaded heatspreader thermal interfaces that pull heat away from chipset components and transfer it to the edge of the module. Depending on the OEM application, many of the congatec Qseven products can be ordered with x86 processors from AMD and Intel or ARM processors from Freescale.

Development Platforms: At the ST Micro booth we visited with Ayla Networks who were demonstrating their proof-of-concept secure M2M cloud connectivity solutions with the STM32 F3 evaluation platforms representing connectivity targets. We expect to hear more from Ayla in the future, and you will likely be reading about them in our blog. At the Texas Instruments booth we were shown the new BeagleBoard Black open-source development platform. This impressive unit sells for only $45, and has a 1 GHz ARM A8 processor, 512MB of DDR3 RAM memory, and an on-board HDMI. The BeagleBoard can be expanded for multiple applications by using BeagleBone “capes”. There were multiple applications highlighted, including a remotely controlled electro-mechanical spider that had been fabricated using 3D printed parts.

Ultra Low Power MCUs: We noted that ST Micro had won an EE Times / EDN ACE Award for its Fully-Depleted Silicon-on-Insulator (FD-SOI) technology that allows devices to run using 20 – 50% less power. On a similar note, Renesas was demonstrating the power sipping ability of its RX111 group of MCUs that can wake up in 4.8us from a sleep mode, where it only consumes 350nA. In addition, the RX111 has 6 safety functions to verify/ensure that the device and supporting circuitry are working properly.

Industrial SATA III SSD: The VDC team met with Innodisc and learned about their new SATA III line of Flash Storage Products targeted at embedded applications in the industrial market.  These Innodisc products use arrays of lower-cost Multi-Layer Cell (MLC) memory chips to duplicate Single-Layer Cell performance and reliability at a significantly lower price point.

Embedded Certainty: At the XMOS booth we learned about their series of MCUs that were designed to remove uncertainty from critical applications. This means that programs can be developed where the signal timing is completely predictable. Roughly stated, the XMOS MCU have removed I/O layers and other elements that create signal latency or processing variables that can affect timing. There are many applications such as digital audio and collision avoidance that can benefit from MCUs with predictable timing.

Embedded Motherboards: As the VDC EHW team is currently in the midst of our supply-side coverage of the embedded motherboard market, we were particularly interested in seeing the two new SuperMicro X9DR products. Both of these units were extremely powerful and can be used in applications that require power-efficient processing of high volumes of data. SuperMicro also sells its products into the traditional IT space and, as such, has some system options that can be attractive to OEMs supporting mission critical applications. These include built in Uninterruptible Power Supply and automatic flash memory backup of system RAM and CPU processes in the event of a power outage.

Stay tuned for part 3 where we will wrap up our observations from the 2013 Design West show. 

Design East / ESC Show 2012 Highlights - Part 2

On Monday through Wednesday of this week, VDC attended the Design East ESC show at the Hynes Convention Center in Boston.  In yesterday's blog we talked about the embeddy. In today's blog we will look at some of our experiences at the show. At this year’s show, we noted several themes: safety & regulation, security, connectivity as well as the usual performance, power, and price trends.

Connectivity Trends: A few years ago, the VDC perception while attending ESC Boston and Freescale’s Technology Forum, was that many members of the embedded community had significant uncertainty around what communications standards would become prominent. In mid-2012, this has not changed entirely because suppliers still tend to support as many standards as reasonably possible. But, presently, we believe there is more traction for Bluetooth and WiFi, and less emphasis on Zigbee.  It was clear from multiple conversations we had with component and system suppliers that both Bluetooth and WiFi have made huge in-roads into the embedded markets. This makes tremendous sense with the proliferation of smart portable devices in the market offering a natural HMI interface and Bluetooth and WiFi are on virtually every one of them.

A few highlights from the VDC Embedded Hardware Team at the show:

Keynotes: There were two great keynote speeches by Futuretainment author Mike Walsh and MIT’s Rosalind W. Picard, Sc.D., FIEEE. VDC’s quick takeaway from these keynotes is that embedded system designers need to increasingly take into account the social and emotional aspects of the market and end users instead of focusing on the technical and financial components. That’s why companies like Intel are hiring Anthropologists and MIT’s media lab projects are so compelling. (If you missed them, hopefully UBM will post these keynotes or at least some highlights from them)

Aci  Technology: We visited the Aci Technology (aka Arise Computer) booth and saw several of their fanless and industrial computer solutions that were targeted at markets including kiosks and gaming as well as retail automation.

Connect Tech: We had a great briefing from Connect Tech and we noted their growing line of embedded integrated computer systems based on their IP and overall experience designing embedded solutions for OEMs. We had previously seen an interesting case where Bluefin Robotics engaged Connect Tech to develop a single PC/104 board solution that contained the functionality that formerly required 3 times the space. It is this type of design expertise that has led to recent wearable computing solutions for military applications. 

Freescale: With more and more connected devices, and increasingly private data (medical records for example) being transferred through networks, the need for security around medical systems is increasingly relevant. Freescale had its Home Health Hub (HHH) reference platform on display. The hub serves as a central connection point for multiple wireless health devices such as pulse oximeters, blood glucose monitors, weight scales, etc. The hub can also share information gathered from these devices with a display device such as a tablet. Freescale’s wireless partner on this project was Digi International, who provides their iDigi Telehealth Application Kit which includes the Freescale HHH reference board.

Microchip: During the show, Microchip announced a new series of 8-bit MCUs across three lines of its PIC family microcontrollers (PIC16F145X, PIC18F2X/4XK50, and PIC18F97J94) that are within its USB 2.0 family. Featuring an internal crystal that saves $0.15 on the microcontroller’s cost, a wide range of pin counts, and low power consumption, these PIC microcontrollers are helping to round out Microchip’s USB enabled MCUs. Microchip will begin ramping up production on these chips in November, with sampling on some of the product family already available.

NXP: NXP announced two new microcontrollers, the LPC408x and the LPC407x, that include ARM Cortex-M4 processors. Intended applications include displays, scanners, medical diagnostics, and motor-control applications among others. These MCUs also have pin capability and innovative peripherals, and provide for ease of qualification. They also provide migration capabilities between NXP’s Cortex-M3 families towards the high performance LPC4300.

Sierra Wireless: We heard about their new AirPrime device that will allow OEMs to produce embedded systems that more easily allow their customers to switch cellular carriers. This can be an important cost saving feature as the OEMs customers can aggressively seek out the best deals between the cellular companies and can easily reconfigure as needed.

ST Microelectronics: At the ST Microelectronics booth the VDC team heard about their latest 32 bit microcontrollers that are part of the substantial and still growing ST product array of MCUs. The STM32 F3 series had many impressive capabilities including floating point and options that included 16-bit A/D converters. The F3 product line already has many different members with more on the roadmap so, in most all cases, an engineer can select the exact ST MCU product that meets their needs without paying for functionality that they don’t require. The F3 series was also pin compatible with the F1 series and that allows an engineer to upscale a previously designed product with minimal development costs. The VDC team was also impressed with the ST dual interface M2LR series of EEPROM products that can be accessed via I²C wireline bus or using passive RFID technology.

Texas Instruments:  In addition to the RM46x that won the VDC Embeddy award, the VDC team also saw several other TI products including the Stellaris Launch Pad that is currently priced at $4.99. This product empowers embedded system engineers to develop new products using TI’s Stellaris M4 ARM based microcontroller. This development kit is augmented by a myriad number of “BoosterPack” boards made by TI and a number of their partners that can be stacked together to do proof of concept on a complete product solution.

L-R Chris Rommel (VDC), Dev Pradhan (TI), David Laing (VDC)

Qualcomm: Perhaps one of the most interesting attendees at the show was Qualcomm. Better known as a provider of mobile phone applications processors, Qualcomm is beginning to explore the embedded market with its Snapdragon S4 processor. Qualcomm co-presented its Snapdragon processor line alongside its embedded partner, Intrinsyc Software International, which bases its Open-Q System-On-Module around Qualcomm’s Snapdragon. 

A Focus on Storage: With a VDC EHW project focused on storage trends within embedded integrated computer systems (EICS) kicking off in 2013, the VDC team made it a point to visit the booths of the memory/SSD companies that were at the show. We saw the latest product offerings from Kingston Digital, Swissbit, and Transcend Information. The EICS suppliers that we have spoken with about storage have indicated that memory/storage products can vary greatly with respect to speed, capacity, cost, and overall longevity. Depending on the application, a particular memory/SSD product would be suitable while another similar unit may not be. Why is that? Stay tuned in early 2013 and we will likely blog on that very subject. If you want more information, we would be thrilled to have your company as a founding sponsor for the report.

Next week we will be providing some detail on an Intel presentation that was given during the ESC show to highlight their Intelligent Systems Framework.

Reminder - ESC Design East Show is Next Week - Last Chance to Qualify for Embeddy

There's still time to connect with the VDC Research Embedded Hardware & Software team at the ESC show next week but the coveted time-slots on Tuesday are rapidly being taken. If you believe you have a new product that qualifies for one of the VDC embeddy awards contact us as soon as possible as at least one member of the VDC team needs to see the product demo/briefing during or before the show. The winners will be notified on Tuesday evening and announced just before Wednesday's keynote speech.

The VDC team will be at the show site starting on Monday and, of course we can also schedule meetings on Wednesday as well.

If you would like to schedule a meeting around Embedded Hardware, please contact:

David Laing, Senior Analyst, Embedded Hardware & Systems Practice, VDC Research Group at: [email protected] or 508.653.9000 x146.

Or

Chris Rommel, Vice President, Embedded Hardware & Systems Practice, VDC Research Group at: [email protected] or 508.653.9000 x123.

If you would like to schedule a meeting around Embedded Software and Tools, please contact:

Jared Weiner, Analyst, Embedded Software & Tools Practice, VDC Research Group at: [email protected] or 508.653.9000 x143.

Connect with VDC Research Group at the Design East/Embedded Systems Conference 2012!

VDC Research Group will be joining the Design East/Embedded Systems Conference 2012 exhibition and conference.  During the conference, we will be presenting the coveted VDC Embeddy awards to a deserving product in the software and hardware categories. To make sure your product is considered, please make sure that:

• The product is formally announced at the show or, has been announced as of August, 2012
• That the VDC Research team will be briefed on the details of the product by your show staff.

Note: The Embeddys will be presented before Wednesday's keynote address. Therefore the briefings need to be completed by the evening of Tuesday September 18th.

VDC’s Embedded Hardware Team will be available at the show starting Monday September 17th and will be at the conference through the 19th.  During that time, we welcome the opportunity to connect with attending vendors.  We look forward to explaining VDC’s research methodology, learning about your latest product releases, and discussing your market research and strategic needs.

If you would like to learn more about the show, please click here.

If you would like to schedule a meeting around Embedded Hardware, please contact:

David Laing, Senior Analyst, Embedded Hardware & Systems Practice, VDC Research Group at: [email protected] or 508.653.9000 x146.

Or

Chris Rommel, Vice President, Embedded Hardware & Systems Practice, VDC Research Group at: [email protected]  or 508.653.9000 x123.

If you would like to schedule a meeting around Embedded Software, please contact:

Jared Weiner, Analyst, Embedded Software & Tools Practice, VDC Research Group at: [email protected]  or 508.653.9000 x143.

ADLINK TECHNOLOGY ACHIEVES NUMBER TWO PC/104 MARKET SHARE THROUGH ACQUISITION

Approximately six weeks ago, ADLINK Technology, Inc. (New Taipei City, Taiwan) announced the 100% acquisition of LiPPERT Embedded Computers GmbH (Mannheim, Germany), providing a major increase in market share for modular computing products. (http://www.lippertembedded.de/en/information/news/312-adlink-acquires-lippert.html )

 ADLINK’s first major push into the modular computing segment was the firm’s 2008 acquisition of AMPRO Computers, Inc. (San Jose, CA), now doing business as AMPRO by ADLINK. AMPRO, historically, was the inventor and a leading supplier of PC/104 family modules, as well as a pioneer in the field of Computers-on-Modules (COMs). Indeed, AMPRO’s Encore COMs had won several awards, including the EDN Innovation of the Year in 2001, and Electronique’s Electron d’Or in 2002.

Since the 2008 acquisition, the combined firm’s market shares have been quite healthy. VDC estimates that, in 2011, ADLINK held a 6.25% market share in PC/104 Family modules (the number 5 position), a  3.01% share in COMs (the number 8 position), and a 13.69% share in “other stackable” CPU modules (EBX, EPIC), yielding the number three position.

LiPPERT is also a major player in the modular field, particularly in the area of PC/104 Family modules. The firm had an estimated 2011 market share of 3.41%, occupying the number 13 slot. The combined shares of ADLINK and LiPPERT (9.67%) would have given ADLINK the number two slot, second only to the Eurotech Group.

Although LiPPERT has also been active in both the COMs and “other stackables” arenas, the firm’s market shares are substantially smaller; the addition of LiPPERT’s shares to those of ADLINK would not have been sufficient to move the firm higher in rank.

However, both firms bring considerable across-the-board expertise to the table. VDC expects this combination to be quite formidable, particularly in the PC/104 Family field.    

Connect with VDC Research Group at the Design West/Embedded Systems Conference 2012!

VDC Research Group will be joining the Design West/Embedded Systems Conference 2012 exhibition and conference.  During the conference, we will be presenting the coveted VDC Embeddy awards to a deserving product in each of the 2 software and hardware categories. To make sure your product is considered, please make sure that:

• The product is formally announced at the show or, has been announced as of January, 2012
• That the VDC Research team will be briefed on the details of the product by your show staff.

VDC’s Embedded Hardware Team will be arriving March 27th and will be at the conference through March 29th.  During that time, we welcome the opportunity to connect with attending vendors.  We look forward to explaining VDC’s research methodology, learning about your latest product releases, and discussing your market research and strategic needs.

If you would like to learn more about the show, please click here.

If you would like to schedule a meeting around Embedded Hardware, please contact:

David Laing, Senior Analyst, Embedded Hardware & Systems Practice, VDC Research Group at: [email protected] or 508.653.9000 x146.

Or

Chris Rommel, Vice President, Embedded Hardware & Systems Practice, VDC Research Group at: [email protected]  or 508.653.9000 x123.

If you would like to schedule a meeting around Embedded Software, please contact:

Jared Weiner, Analyst, Embedded Software & Tools Practice, VDC Research Group at: [email protected]  or 508.653.9000 x143.