After reading a short article in the December issue of Control Design (Machinery Could Make U.S. Comeback) I began to think back to another Bloomberg BusinessWeek article written by Andy Grove that I blogged about back on December 20, 2010. I have been developing a hypothesis over the last 6-12 months based on the belief that as the wages of workers in countries such as China, India and Vietnam increase over time, the cost advantages enjoyed by those countries, and the companies outsourcing manufacturing, R&D and even some services (i.e. call centers, etc.) to those countries relative to the U.S. will diminish.
When companies factor in the financial cost of shipping as well as the opportunity lost cost due to delays in shipping, along with ability to gain competitive advantage by advertising “Made in America”, they will begin seeing even more politicians who are receptive to providing tax breaks and other incentives to create jobs in our own country. And as the workers in China, India and other countries continue to experience the benefits of capitalism and increased standards of living, they will continue to demand higher wages, thereby closing the gap which led to the stampede to outsource U.S. jobs to begin with.
In the future it will not only be politically expedient (or PR driven) to begin making more products and providing more services in the U.S., it will also be more economically prudent. The article in Control Design lists seven “tipping point” sectors that are set to return to the U.S. for manufacturing. The other six sectors besides machinery include computers and electronics, fabricated metal products, plastics and rubber, appliances and electrical equipment, furniture and transportation goods, according to a recent study by the Boston Consulting Group (BCG).
I recalled in that 12/20/10 blog asking the question, something to the affect of, ‘who will buy all the vacuum cleaners being made in China if no one is working here in the U.S.?’ Andy Grove was even more intellectual than I when he opined that our country is not only losing out on jobs, but the country was gutting its spirit of innovation and ability to develop an ecosystem which fosters innovation, ingenuity and the real American spirit. If you have not already read Andy’s article, I strongly recommend you do as it expressed the concerns that I had, much more intelligently and coherently than I could ever have.
In the final analysis, I believe that more and more companies in the future (and politicians giving them tax breaks) will begin looking to bring back jobs to America not just because it is the patriotic thing to do, rather because if they do not, then they risk losing market share to those firms that do.
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