As Belden and the rest of the world (or at least relevant interested parties including myself) await the Ontario's Securities Commission (OSC) decision, expected on February 6, 2012, on RuggedCom Board's Shareholder Rights Plan, I started to wonder if RuggedCom's management efforts to avoid a 'hostile takeover' may eventually cause more jobs to be lost should Belden's current offer of C$280 million be outbid by another suitor or by Belden itself during a heated bidding war.
Although I am no financial expert it appears that the move by RuggedCom's board is just a delay tactic that may be intended to provide it with more time to secure either a more favorable acquisition price or perhaps a more favorable suitor; one that will have less of a need to realize synergies (i.e. layoffs in the mind of RuggedCom management) as a result of an acquisition in the neighborhood of US $300 million or more. Belden, a focused industry leader, is more likely to rationalize (i.e. reduce headcount) RuggedCom's operations in order to realize greater efficiencies than another firm such as Cisco, ABB or GE, among others, which, in my humble opinion, may be more inclined to rely more on RuggedCom's personnel and their specific expertise and market knowledge.
Although it may seem like paying a $300 million price tag is steep, equates to roughly 3X revenues, RuggedCom's growth has been pretty impressive; and those 55%+ plus gross margins certainly may help the financials of some of the other potential suitors. VDC's own industrial networking research reveals that the growth outlook in the smart grid segment, as well as the overall power generation market, is pretty robust at close to a 20% CAGR through 2015. Although RuggedCom's product portfolio is not able to serve the entire $3.1 billion wireline industrial networking infrastructure products markets, their offerings can serve over 40% and those markets served represent the fastest growing consuming segments.
My original hypothesis is that by trying to extract more value for its shareholders, which is business 101 and strongly encouraged, RuggedCom's management may eventually end up creating a situation in which the acquirer overpays and is forced to reduce (more) headcount in order to recoup their investment.
I wish Marzio Pozzuoli and his team all the best as they have done a great job of serving the needs of the industrial automation community and they and the shareholders should be well compensated for their successful efforts. I am eagerly waiting to learn which company will eventually acquire RuggedCom and how the entire process will play out.
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